France vs Iraq

The expanded format pairs France with Iraq, a side whose qualification was a genuine achievement but who sit far below the perennial favourites in resources and individual quality. The interest here is margin and France's professionalism, not the outcome.

France can field a second-choice attack that still outclasses most nations' first XI. Kylian Mbappé alone is a matchwinning problem Iraq cannot solve, and the depth behind him — elite wide forwards and midfield runners — means rotation barely dents their level. The only realistic threat to a comfortable win is complacency once qualification is secure.

Iraq are well-drilled and committed, with a disciplined defensive shape and the occasional dangerous transition, but they lack the athletic and technical level to live with France's forward line across 90 minutes. Their plan will be a deep block, frustration football and damage limitation.

Iraq's low block can hold for a while — France are sometimes slow to break stubborn defences early — but the French bench is deep enough to change games, and Iraq's legs will fade in the second half. Once the first goal goes in, the resistance tends to collapse and the margin grows. France's motivation and rotation are the only variables, not the result.

A France win is a near-certainty and priced accordingly, so the value is in the handicap. We back France -2 on the Asian line at 1.90 with medium confidence — France to win by three or more, with a partial refund on a two-goal margin, expecting the resistance to break after the hour as French depth tells.