Mexico vs South Africa

This is the curtain-raiser of the expanded 48-team World Cup — Mexico open the tournament as co-hosts at a packed Estadio Azteca, with all the occasion and pressure that carries. Host nations almost always win the opener; the real question is the margin against a South African side back at a World Cup but without the depth to trade blows with a motivated Mexico.

Mexico lean on a settled spine — Edson Álvarez breaking play in midfield, Santiago Giménez giving them a genuine number nine, and the Azteca altitude (over 2,200m) a real physiological weapon against opponents who rarely train at that elevation. The crowd and the thin air alone are worth a goal of edge in an opener.

South Africa's Bafana Bafana qualified on organisation and counter-attacking through their domestic-and-European blend, but they are a low-block side that will sit deep and try to frustrate. That suits Mexico, who are far better at breaking down massed defences than they are in open transition.

Opener nerves cut both ways, but Mexico's quality, altitude advantage and the desperation of a host nation not to stumble on night one tilt this heavily. South Africa's realistic plan is damage limitation plus a set-piece or counter for a consolation. Expect Mexico to control possession, take time to break the resistance, then pull clear after the hour as legs tire in the thin air.

A straight win is short; the value is in the margin. We back Mexico -1 on the Asian handicap at 1.85 with medium confidence — Mexico to win by two or more, stake refunded on a one-goal win. The altitude-and-occasion combination should produce a comfortable rather than a nervy host victory.