Netherlands vs Japan

The Netherlands remain a fixture of the world's top tier, but Japan are no longer a convenient opener — they have become the standout Asian side, packed with players at mid-to-upper European clubs and a fearless, high-pressing identity. This is a banana-skin for a Dutch team that has historically started tournaments slowly.

The Netherlands' strength is structured possession and aerial threat — Virgil van Dijk anchoring the back, Cody Gakpo and the Eredivisie-and-Premier-League forward pool, and a midfield built for control rather than chaos. Their recurring flaw at tournaments is a sluggish first game and vulnerability when pressed high.

Japan are exactly the side to exploit that: a coordinated, relentless press, quick combination play through their Bundesliga and Premier League contingent, and the discipline to sustain intensity for 90 minutes. They beat Germany and Spain at Qatar 2022 — this is not a side that freezes against big names.

If the Netherlands are slow out of the blocks, Japan's press will turn it into an uncomfortable, transition-heavy contest. The Dutch counter is set-piece power and individual quality in the final third once they settle. Expect a competitive opening, with the Netherlands' superior squad depth more likely to tell in the second half than an early stranglehold.

The Dutch have the edge in quality and physicality, but Japan's pressing makes a comfortable margin unlikely. We back Netherlands to win at 1.70 with medium confidence — backing Oranje to navigate a genuine test rather than expecting the routine opener the rankings imply.