Athletic Club vs RC Celta de Vigo

RC Celta de Vigo have not taken a point from this ground in the five meetings we hold, and that is the cleanest line running through the set. Athletic Club won 4-3 at home on 10 November 2023, a match level at 2-2 by half-time, and 3-1 at home on 22 September 2024, leading 2-1 at the break. The three played in Vigo went the other way more often than not: Celta won 2-1 on 15 May 2024 despite trailing at half-time, lost 2-1 on 19 January 2025 having been goalless at the interval, and won 2-0 on 14 December 2025 in a game that was scoreless until after the break.

The totals are worth noting because they cut against the idea of a cagey rivalry. Those five matches produced 19 goals between them, and two of the five had four or more. Both San Mamés fixtures were open — seven goals in one, four in the other — and in both the hosts scored at least three. Whatever else this pairing has been, it has not been quiet.

Celta finished seventh last season on 55 points, with 16 wins, seven draws and 15 defeats, 59 scored and 57 conceded. They are sixth this time on 50 points from 36, at plus four, with 13 wins, 11 draws and 12 defeats. The striking detail is where those points came from. Away from home they have won eight, drawn six and lost four in 18, conceding 19. At home they have won five, drawn five and lost eight, with 28 scored and 28 conceded. Celta have been meaningfully better on the road than in Vigo this season, which is not the profile most sixth-placed sides carry into a trip like this.

Their run into it is jagged: a 4-3 home defeat to Alavés on 22 March, a 3-2 win at Valencia, a 3-0 home loss to Oviedo, a 1-0 defeat at Barcelona, a 2-1 loss at Villarreal, a 3-1 home win over Elche, a 1-0 win at Atlético Madrid on 9 May, and then a 3-2 home defeat to Levante on 12 May. Six of those eight had three goals or more.

Athletic are the bigger story. They finished fourth last season on 70 points — 19 wins, 13 draws, six defeats, only 29 conceded — and sit tenth now on 44 with 13 wins, five draws and 18 defeats, a goal difference of minus 13 and 53 conceded. That is a 26-point drop with two rounds still to play, and the defensive record has moved by 24 goals in the wrong direction across two fewer matches. The one thing that has held up is San Mamés: nine wins, two draws and seven defeats there, 21 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from it they have won four in 18 and shipped 33.

Their last eight are two wins and six defeats: 2-1 over Betis, 0-2 at Getafe, 1-2 at home to Villarreal, 1-0 over Osasuna, 3-2 at Atlético, a 4-2 win at Alavés, a 1-0 home defeat to Valencia on 10 May and a 2-0 loss at Espanyol on 13 May.

Both clubs still have a table reason to be here, which is not true of every fixture this weekend. Celta are sixth on 50 with seventh two points behind them and six points left to win; fifth is seven clear and out of range. Their whole remaining season is about holding the place they are in. Athletic are tenth on 44, four behind seventh, which keeps a climb technically alive into the last two rounds.

The home-and-away shapes point in opposite directions. Athletic have taken 29 of their points in Bilbao and been comfortably the weaker team everywhere else; Celta have been the reverse, with a road record — eight wins, four defeats — that is the better half of their season. This is one of the few fixtures where the away side's split argues against the home side's.

Recent form favours neither. Athletic have lost six of eight, including their last home game. Celta have mixed wins and defeats for two months and have conceded three or more in three of their last eight.

Goals look likelier than not. Athletic's home games have averaged a shade over two and a quarter between the sides, Celta's away games have not been tight either, and the head-to-head at this ground produced seven and four.

Our pick is Double Chance 1X (Athletic Club or Draw) at 1.42, rated medium confidence.

The case rests on the ground. Athletic have won nine and drawn two of 18 at San Mamés, meaning eleven of their home games ended without a visiting win, and both meetings with Celta here in our records went to the hosts — 4-3 and 3-1. A side whose season has fallen apart on the road has still been awkward at home, and Celta arrive having lost eight of 18 in their own stadium. Double chance is also the market our own record backs, at a 69.4% strike rate and a 0.4% return across 374 settled picks, where 1X2 has run at minus 5.4%.

We are not going to dress this up as a strong call. Celta are six points and four places better off, their away form is the best part of their season, and Athletic have lost six of their last eight including their most recent match at home. The 1.42 price sits in the band up to 1.45 that has returned minus 0.6% for us, so there is no margin for a coin-flip. The thing that beats it is simply Celta's travelling record: eight away wins says a visiting side capable of winning here, against hosts whose form suggests they will not need much beating.