Bologna FC 1909 vs FC Internazionale Milano

Recent history between these two is split neatly by venue, and not in the direction a goals bet wants. The last two meetings at the Dall'Ara were a 1-0 to Bologna on 20 April 2025 and a 1-0 to Inter on 9 March 2024 — both clean sheets, both settled by a single goal. The fixtures in Milan have been the open ones: Inter won 3-1 on 4 January this season after leading 1-0 at the break, drew 2-2 on 15 January 2025, and drew 2-2 again on 7 October 2023.

So three of the five saw both teams score, and all three of those were played at San Siro. On this ground, the pattern of the last two visits is a tight game in which one side keeps a clean sheet. That is the honest starting point for a both-teams-to-score selection, and it argues against it. What can be said for the fixture is that Bologna have taken something from three of the five, including a win, so this is not a pairing where the home side simply sits back and absorbs.

Bologna finished 2024/25 ninth on 62 points, sixteen wins, fourteen draws and eight defeats, with 57 scored and 47 conceded. They come into the final round eighth on 55 points with a goal difference of +3, inside the group still contesting the European places.

The oddity of their season is that the away form has carried it. On the road they have won at Cagliari, Parma, Udinese, Verona, Torino, Pisa, Sassuolo, Cremonese, Napoli and Atalanta — the 2-3 at Napoli on 11 May and the 1-0 at Atalanta on 17 May are their two most recent matches, and both were away wins over sides above them. At home it has been the reverse. Bologna have failed to score at the Dall'Ara against Torino (0-0, 29 October), Juventus (0-1, 14 December), Atalanta (0-2, 7 January), Milan (0-3, 3 February), Parma (0-1, 8 February), Lazio (0-2, 22 March), Roma (0-2, 25 April) and Cagliari (0-0, 3 May). Eight home blanks is a lot for a side chasing Europe, and two of them came in the last three home outings.

Inter finished 2024/25 second on 81 points, 79 scored and 35 conceded for a +44 difference. This season they arrive top of the table on 86 points with a difference of +54, 31 clear of their hosts. Their travelling record is the relevant half: they have left the home side without a goal at Cagliari, Roma, Pisa, Atalanta, Parma, Udinese, Cremonese, Sassuolo, Lecce and Lazio, the last of those a 3-0 on 9 May. Their most recent away days have been comfortable rather than fraught.

Where Inter have conceded away, though, they have tended to concede properly: 4-3 at Juventus on 13 September, 3-1 at Napoli on 25 October, 3-4 at Como on 12 April, 2-2 at Torino on 26 April, 1-1 at Fiorentina on 22 March.

The first factor is the split personality of Bologna's season. A side with ten away wins and eight home blanks is not a side you would normally back to score at home, and the home half of their record is the half that applies today.

The second is that Inter's away goals conceded are lumpy rather than steady. They shut out ten hosts, and in the games where the clean sheet went, it usually went badly — four at Juventus, three at Napoli, four at Como. That distribution matters for this market: it means the question is less whether Inter defend well on average and more whether this is one of the afternoons when they do not.

The third is what the day is worth. Inter are top of the table with a 31-point cushion over their hosts and a goal difference that dwarfs everyone; Bologna are eighth with a higher finish still within reach, which is the sort of margin that turns a final-day fixture into a real one. A home side that needs goals plays differently from one that needs a point, and Bologna's front-foot away record shows they are capable of it.

The fourth is the counterweight to all of it: the last two league meetings at this ground finished 1-0 and 0-1. Whatever the season averages say, this specific fixture at this specific venue has recently been tight and one-sided in the scoring.

The fifth is the calendar. Final-round matches involving a leader with a large points cushion have a habit of being loose at both ends, but they can equally be controlled walkovers, and Inter have produced plenty of the latter on the road this year.

Both-teams-to-score is not a market we lean on, and we would rather be candid about why this one is a stretch than dress it up. The strongest argument for it is the shape of Inter's away concessions — when they leak, they leak in multiples — combined with a home side that still has a placing to chase and has spent the season proving it can score against better opposition away from home. The strongest argument against it is that the same home side has been shut out eight times at the Dall'Ara, including twice in its last three home matches, and that the last two meetings here produced one goal apiece.

We take Both Teams to Score at 1.75 with medium confidence. It is a read on an open, high-motivation last afternoon rather than a call on the winner, which is the one part of this fixture we would not want to price.

The thing that beats it is the most ordinary outcome available: Inter score early, settle into the control they have shown at Cagliari, Parma, Udinese and Lecce, and Bologna add a ninth home blank to a season that has been generous with them.