Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace have not beaten Bournemouth in any of the five most recent meetings between the clubs, and three of those five were draws. The last one, on 18 October 2025 at Selhurst Park, was much the liveliest: Bournemouth led 0-2 at half-time and the game finished 3-3. Before that came two goalless afternoons in a row — 0-0 at Palace on 19 April 2025 and 0-0 on the south coast on 26 December 2024. Bournemouth won the two before those, 1-0 at home on 2 April 2024 and 2-0 away on 6 December 2023.

Nine goals in five matches, three of them draws, and a Palace side still waiting for a win in the sequence. That is a useful shape for anyone whose selection covers the home win and the draw, because every one of the five results in the record would have settled it. The caveat is obvious enough: two of those matches produced no goals at all and a third produced one, so this is not a fixture that has historically been decided emphatically in anybody's favour.

Bournemouth sit eighth on 49 points from 34 games, with 11 wins, 16 draws and seven defeats. Sixteen draws is the number that defines their season; their goal difference is exactly level at 52 scored and 52 conceded. At the Vitality they have been genuinely hard to beat, losing only two of 17 home matches for a record of six wins, nine draws and two losses, 25 scored and 19 conceded, and 27 points banked.

The recent home run leans heavily on that middle column. Their last five at home all finished level: 1-1 with Aston Villa on 7 February, 1-1 with Sunderland on 28 February, 0-0 with Brentford on 3 March, 2-2 with Manchester United on 20 March and 2-2 with Leeds on 22 April. The two home wins before that stretch were both by the odd goal in five, 3-2 against Tottenham on 7 January and 3-2 against Liverpool on 24 January. Away from home they have been sharper of late, winning 1-2 at Arsenal on 11 April and 1-2 at Newcastle on 18 April.

Crystal Palace are 14th on 43 points from 33 matches, one game behind most of the division, with 11 wins, ten draws and 12 defeats, and a difference of minus three from 36 scored and 39 conceded. Only 36 goals in 33 games is the thinnest part of their record.

Their travelling form is the more interesting half. Palace have taken 23 points from 16 away games — seven wins, two draws, seven defeats, 20 scored and 20 conceded — against 20 points from 17 at home. Away days have produced their best results and their worst, with little in between. The last six overall split evenly into two wins, two draws and two defeats: beaten 2-1 at Manchester United on 1 March, a 3-1 win at Tottenham on 5 March, 0-0 at home to Leeds on 15 March, 2-1 against Newcastle on 12 April, 0-0 with West Ham on 20 April and a 3-1 defeat at Liverpool on 25 April.

The first factor is Bournemouth's home solidity. Two defeats in 17 is the plainest argument for a selection that only needs the hosts to avoid losing, and the nine home draws mean the second leg of the double chance has been doing plenty of work all season.

The second is Palace's shortage of goals. Thirty-six in 33 matches, and 20 in 16 on the road, is a scoring rate that makes winning away at a side who concede 19 at home a demanding ask. Three of the last five meetings between these clubs produced one goal or none.

The third is what each side is chasing. Bournemouth are eighth on 49, with Brentford on 51 and Brighton on 50 immediately above them and Chelsea and Fulham on 48 immediately below — a cluster tight enough that a single result reshuffles it, and four matches left to sort out. Palace, nine points clear of 18th with five to play, are in a far calmer position, and the honest reading is that their season has less riding on it than their hosts'.

The fourth is the draw itself. Bournemouth have drawn 16 and Palace ten; between them that is 26 level results from 67 matches. The double chance is priced on the assumption that this fixture behaves the way both teams' seasons have behaved.

The reasoning is not complicated, and it is stronger than the bare table positions suggest. Bournemouth have lost twice at home all season and are chasing a European place they can still reach. Palace have failed to win any of the last five against them, have scored 36 goals in 33 games, and have less at stake. A selection covering the home win and the draw takes in nine home draws, six home wins and a head-to-head record in which the visitors have not won any of the five most recent meetings.

Where the pick is exposed is the price and the opponent's away habits. At 1.35, Double Chance 1X (Bournemouth or Draw) is a short number that needs to land close to three times in four to be worth taking, and Palace have seven away wins from 16 — including at Brighton in February and at Tottenham in March, so they clearly can win on the road. We rate it high confidence on the strength of the home record rather than on any sense that Bournemouth are the sharper side; sixteen draws is not the profile of a team that dominates.

The thing that beats it is a Palace side arriving with nothing to protect, playing the loose, direct away game that produced 3-1 at Tottenham, against hosts who have not won at home since January.