CA Osasuna vs Levante UD

Seven recorded meetings, eighteen goals, and a four-year hole in the middle of them. These clubs met in March 2022 and then did not meet again until December 2025, which is the sort of gap that makes a head-to-head record more of an archive than a form guide.

What the archive contains: Levante won 3-2 at home on 8 May 2026; Osasuna won 2-0 at El Sadar on 8 December 2025; Osasuna won 3-1 at home on 19 March 2022; a 0-0 in Valencia on 5 December 2021; Osasuna won 1-0 in Valencia on 14 February 2021; Levante won 3-1 in Pamplona on 27 September 2020; and Osasuna won 2-0 at home on 24 January 2020. Four wins for Osasuna, two for Levante, one draw.

The Pamplona subset is the useful part. Four of the seven were played at El Sadar and Osasuna won three of them — 2-0, 3-1 and 2-0 — losing only the 1-3 in September 2020. Twelve goals across those four, three a game, and in the three Osasuna won they did not concede more than one.

The most recent meeting cuts the other way and it matters. Levante won 3-2 in Valencia in May 2026, the highest-scoring match in the sample, and it came five months after they had lost 2-0 in Pamplona. Both of the two most recent meetings went to the home side, which is a very small sample pointing at a very large split in both clubs' seasons.

The two sides finished last season on identical records. Osasuna were sixteenth and Levante eighteenth, both on 42 points, both with eleven wins, nine draws and eighteen defeats. The separation came from goal difference alone: Osasuna 44 scored and 50 conceded, Levante 47 and 61.

Osasuna's campaign was one of the most venue-dependent in the division. At El Sadar they were 9-5-5 for thirty-two points, scoring 31 and conceding 24. Away from Pamplona they were 2-4-13 for ten points, with thirteen scored and twenty-six conceded — two away wins in nineteen attempts, and among the three worst road records in the division. Thirty-two of their forty-two points came at home, which is where their entire season lived.

Levante were more evenly poor. At home 7-5-7 for twenty-six points, away 4-4-11 for sixteen, with 21 scored and 33 conceded on the road. Sixty-one goals conceded across the season was the joint-highest total in the division, level with Real Sociedad de Fútbol. Four away wins is more than Osasuna managed, but it is not a travelling record that suggests comfort in Pamplona.

The closing runs are worth noting for contrast rather than for predictive value. Osasuna ended the season with five consecutive defeats — L-L-L-L-L, the only such sequence in the division. Levante closed L-W-W-W-L. Three months and a summer separate those runs from this kick-off, and neither is form in any meaningful sense.

Start with Osasuna's home record, which is the whole reason this pick exists. Nine wins and five defeats in nineteen at El Sadar, thirty-two points from a forty-two-point season. Take away their home form and there is no season at all; put them at home against a mid-table opponent and they were, on last season's evidence, a reasonable bet.

The second is Levante's away record. Sixteen points from nineteen road matches, thirty-three goals conceded, four wins. That is not catastrophic, but it is the profile of a side that loses more away games than it wins by a wide margin, and El Sadar is not where that pattern reverses.

The third is the venue history, which agrees. Three Osasuna wins in four at this ground, with clean sheets in two of them, and the only home defeat coming almost six years ago.

The fourth is the counter-evidence, and it is not trivial. Levante beat Osasuna 3-2 in the most recent meeting, and Osasuna finished the season losing five in a row. If either of those carries into August, the price on the hosts is not generous enough. We are explicitly discounting a run that ended in May, which is a judgement call rather than a measurement.

The fifth is that the sides finished on the same points with the same win-draw-loss line. This is not a fixture where one team is meaningfully better than the other across a full season; the entire edge is that one of them is playing at the ground where it collected three-quarters of its points and the other is playing away from home. That edge is real, but it is narrow, and it is why the price is close to even money rather than short.

Our pick is CA Osasuna to win at 2.00, rated medium confidence. Thirty-two of Osasuna's forty-two points last season came at El Sadar, where they went 9-5-5, while Levante UD took sixteen points from nineteen away matches and conceded thirty-three doing it. Osasuna have won three of the last four meetings played in Pamplona, two of them without conceding.

The honest version of this recommendation is that we are backing a venue split rather than a better team. Both clubs finished on forty-two points with the same eleven wins, nine draws and eighteen defeats. Strip out home advantage and there is nothing to choose between them, which is exactly why the value sits with the side that gets it.

Two things could beat us. Osasuna ended last season with five straight defeats, and if the problems behind that run are structural rather than a fatigued end-of-campaign slide, a home fixture will not fix them. And Levante won the most recent meeting 3-2, the highest-scoring game in the head-to-head, in a match that showed they can trade with this opponent.

Osasuna's start is what matters. Their home season was built on scoring first and defending it — 24 conceded in nineteen at El Sadar — and the one time they lost this fixture at home, in September 2020, they conceded three. If Levante get in front early, Osasuna's thirteen away goals across the whole of last season are a reminder of how little this side creates when it has to chase.