Cagliari Calcio vs Bologna FC 1909

Bologna have owned this fixture and have done it quietly. Four meetings are on record and they have not lost any of them: 2-0 in Sardinia in October 2024, 2-1 at home in March 2025, 2-0 in Sardinia again in October 2025, and a 0-0 at home last May. Three wins and a draw, and Cagliari have scored one goal across the four matches.

The goal totals are the part worth copying down. Those four meetings produced two, three, two and nought goals — three of the four landed below two and a half, and the one that cleared it did so by a single goal. Both visits to Cagliari ended 0-2, with Bologna a goal up at the interval each time, so even the matches Bologna won comfortably were not high-scoring ones.

Bologna finished eighth last season on 56 points, 16 wins and 14 defeats from 38, scoring 49 and conceding 46. This season has not resembled that. Seven matches in they are fourteenth on five points, with one win, two draws and four defeats, six goals scored and ten conceded. The win came away at Lecce, 2-1. At home they have taken two points from four matches — 0-1 to Lazio, 2-2 with Sassuolo, 1-1 with Torino and 1-3 to Inter — and on the road they have 0-1 at Atalanta, 0-1 at Napoli and that Lecce win. Three of the seven have been blanks for them, and six goals in seven matches is the core problem.

Cagliari were fourteenth last season on 43 points with 40 scored and 53 conceded. Six matches into this one they are sixth on 13 points, having won four, drawn one and lost one. The detail behind that is remarkable in both directions: six goals scored and three conceded, and not one match in which they have conceded more than a single goal. All three of their away matches were wins, each by one goal. At home it is thinner — one win, one draw and one defeat, with 1-0 against Lecce, 1-1 against Juventus and 0-1 against Inter.

The figures above are a publication-day snapshot. Cagliari play a league match between this page going up and this kick-off, so the six-match sample and the table position quoted in the frontmatter are where they stood when we wrote it.

Start with Cagliari's totals, because they are the most extreme number in this batch. Their six matches have produced nine goals between both teams — one and a half a match. Five of the six finished under two and a half; the exception was the 2-1 win at Atalanta. Their three home matches have produced four goals in total. Whatever else this side is, it is not involved in open games.

Second, nobody has scored twice against them. Six matches, three goals conceded, a maximum of one in any single match. For this pick to lose, Bologna have to do something no opponent has managed yet, or Cagliari have to score three times in a match in which they have never scored more than twice.

Third, Bologna's attack is the weakest part of a bad start. Six goals in seven matches, three of them blanks, and two goals in three away trips. The away totals read one, one and three. A side scoring less than a goal a game is a poor candidate to push a total over the line.

Fourth, the head-to-head agrees with both of the above: three of four meetings under the line, two of them exactly 0-2 in this stadium, one of them goalless.

Fifth, what the match means. Bologna are fourteenth on five points after seven and badly need a result, and a struggling side chasing one away from home usually plays the percentages rather than throwing the game open. Cagliari, for their part, have built sixth place on a defensive record, and their incentive is to protect it.

Our pick is Under 2.5 Goals at 1.65, confidence high.

Five pieces of evidence point the same way: Cagliari Calcio have played just one match in six with more than two goals in it, they have never conceded twice, their home matches have averaged under one and a half goals apiece, Bologna FC 1909 have scored six times in seven matches, and three of the four meetings on record finished under two and a half goals. The price sits in the 1.60-1.80 band, which our record puts at minus two per cent — not a strength — but over/under itself is our best market, 45 settled picks at 62.2 per cent for plus eight per cent, and this is the sort of fixture that figure was built on.

The honest caveat is how close the line is to the median outcome here. Three of the four previous meetings finished with two or three goals, so a single extra goal is the difference between a winning pick and a losing one, and Bologna's own matches have cleared the line three times in seven — the 2-2 with Sassuolo and the 1-3 against Inter among them. Their defence has conceded ten in seven, so the version of this match where Cagliari score twice early and Bologna chase is entirely available. That is what beats us, and at 1.65 there is not much room to be wrong.