Chelsea FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC

Four meetings, four Chelsea wins. The most recent came on 19 May 2026, a 2-1 at Stamford Bridge from a position of 1-0 at the interval. Before that Chelsea won 1-0 away on 1 November 2025, the goal arriving in a first half they finished ahead. On 3 April 2025 they won 1-0 at home in a match goalless at the break, and on 8 December 2024 they won 4-3 away in a game Tottenham led 2-1 at half-time.

The run is unusually one-sided for a derby: twelve goals in four, eight of them Chelsea's, and Tottenham have taken nothing from any of the four. The 4-3 is the reason the average reads 3.0 a game; strip it out and the other three produced five goals between them, with two finishing under two and a half. All four were settled by a single goal, and in two of them Chelsea came from level or behind at half-time, which says something about where the resilience in this fixture has sat.

Neither of these finished last season anywhere near the top. Chelsea were 10th on 52 points from 38, 14 wins, 10 draws and 14 defeats, 58 scored and 52 conceded at +6. Tottenham were 17th on 41, 10 wins, 11 draws and 17 defeats, 48 scored and 57 conceded at -9 — two points above the relegation places.

Chelsea have improved on that. Seven matches in they are 4th on 13 points at +4, with four wins, a draw and two defeats. What makes them unusual is the volume of goals around them: 17 scored and 13 conceded, thirty in seven games, and six of the seven have gone past two and a half. At home they are unbeaten but anything but solid — 4-3 over Brighton, 2-2 with Hull City, 5-1 over Bournemouth, which is 17 goals in three matches. Their away record is 2 wins and 2 defeats, the losses being 2-1 at Arsenal and a 3-0 at Brentford, and the most recent trip a 2-0 win at Everton on 17 October.

Tottenham have the worst record in the division. Six matches, no wins, three draws, three defeats, 3 points and a goal difference of -6 from 3 scored and 9 conceded. They have played one fewer game than almost everyone around them. At home they lost 2-0 to Newcastle, drew 0-0 with Everton and lost 2-3 to Aston Villa, scoring twice in three. Away they lost 3-0 at Brentford and then drew 0-0 at Nottingham Forest and 1-1 at Manchester United on 10 October. Three goals in six games is the headline, and no side has scored fewer.

The first is the scoring problem, and at six games it is no longer a sample too small to read. Tottenham have managed three goals in six matches and one in three away trips. A team that cannot score needs clean sheets to collect points, and they have two of those in six.

The second is that they have found a way to be hard to beat on the road. The 0-0 at Forest and the 1-1 at Old Trafford were both earned by sitting deep, and two draws from three away games is a better return than their league position implies. Against a Chelsea side whose home matches have averaged nearly six goals, that is the most plausible route to an upset of the price.

Third, Chelsea's defence invites exactly that. Thirteen conceded in seven, six of them in three home games, including three against Brighton and two against a promoted side. They are winning these matches by outscoring opponents rather than controlling them.

Fourth, the gap in the table is ten points after barely two months, 13 against 3, and Chelsea sit 4th while Tottenham are 20th. Derby form can flatten a difference like that for ninety minutes, but it is a wide difference to flatten.

Fifth, the head-to-head: four straight wins for the home side, two of them achieved after going level or behind at the interval.

Our pick is a Chelsea FC win at 1.52 with high confidence. Four factors align: an unbeaten home record of two wins and a draw, four consecutive victories over this opponent, a visiting side that is winless with three goals from six matches, and an away record for Tottenham Hotspur FC that contains no win and a single goal in three trips.

The record behind the market is lukewarm rather than encouraging — 1X2 has returned -1.0% across 195 settled picks, and the 1.45-1.60 band sits at -1.1%. That is close enough to level that the fixture's own numbers decide it, and they point one way. We have deliberately avoided the goals markets here despite Chelsea's home matches producing 17 goals in three, because the opponent has scored three times all season and the two halves of that argument cannot both be true.

What beats it is the away draw Tottenham have twice produced already: a deep defensive block, a Chelsea side that has conceded in every home game, and a derby that only needs one goal to turn into the sort of nervous afternoon the last four meetings never quite became.