Deportivo Alavés vs CA Osasuna

Recent history in this fixture belongs to the visitors. CA Osasuna won 3-0 at home on 20 December 2025, the heaviest defeat either club handed the other in the sample, and the return at this ground on 5 April 2026 finished 2-2. Deportivo Alavés therefore go into this one without a win over this opponent in the two most recent meetings, having taken one point from six.

The 2-2 is the more instructive of the pair, because it happened at this ground and it happened between two sides finishing thirteenth and eighteenth, separated by a single point at the end of the campaign. Four goals in a fixture between two of the division's more cautious teams was the exception rather than the pattern, but it did establish that Alavés can score against this defence at home.

What the head-to-head does not support is any confident claim that Alavés are the natural favourites here on history. They are favourites on the table, and only on the table.

Alavés finished 2025/26 thirteenth on 43 points, from eleven wins, ten draws and seventeen defeats, with 44 goals scored and 56 conceded. Nothing in that suggests a side capable of leading the division, which is exactly where they currently sit.

Three matches into 2026/27 they have seven points from a possible nine. They beat Getafe 3-0 at home on 15 August in a game that was goalless at the interval, drew 1-1 away at Rayo Vallecano on 20 August, then beat Villarreal 1-0 at home on 28 August, leading at the break. Five goals scored, one conceded. The home portion of that is the striking part: two matches, two wins, four goals scored and none conceded.

Osasuna finished eighteenth on 42 points, from eleven wins, nine draws and eighteen defeats, with 44 scored and 50 conceded. That was one point and five places behind Alavés, and it is the closest thing we have to a fair statement of the gap between these clubs.

Their start is unbeaten but modest. They drew 0-0 at home with Levante on 24 August, then won 1-2 away at Celta Vigo on 27 August after trailing at half-time. Four points from six, two goals scored, one conceded, and a home fixture with Getafe on 31 August still to come before they travel here.

The first factor is the home record, small as it is. Alavés have won both matches at this ground without conceding, and one of those wins came against a side that finished third last season. Two games is not a trend, but it is the only venue-specific evidence either club offers this season, and it points one way.

The second is that the table is running well ahead of the underlying quality. Alavés were a minus-twelve goal difference side across 38 matches last season. Leading the division after three rounds is a fact about the calendar as much as about the team, and we should price this as a match between two clubs who finished a point apart, not between first and seventh.

The third is the head-to-head, which cuts against the pick. Osasuna won the last home meeting 3-0 and drew here in April. A visiting side that has not lost this fixture in the sample is a genuine reason to shade the confidence down.

The fourth is the goals profile. Alavés matches this season have produced three, two and one goal. Osasuna's have produced nought and three. Both clubs scored exactly 44 across the whole of last season, a rate a shade over one goal a game, and neither has shown any sign of raising it. Low-scoring fixtures favour the side that avoids defeat rather than the side that wins, which is the shape of our selection.

The fifth is that Osasuna have a fixture in between and Alavés, on our schedule, do not. Our numbers here run to 29 August, and the visitors host Getafe before this trip. That is a marginal point, but at this stage of a season marginal points are most of what is available.

Our pick is Double Chance 1X (Deportivo Alavés or Draw) at 1.30, with medium confidence. The bet wins unless the visitors take all three points.

The reasoning is the home evidence and the shape of the fixture. Deportivo Alavés have taken seven points from nine, kept two clean sheets at this ground, and face a side whose own start amounts to one goal-shy draw and a one-goal win. In a fixture between clubs that finished a point apart, the home advantage is the whole edge, and double chance is the way to collect it without paying for a win the underlying numbers do not promise, at a price our published record has handled well.

What beats it is the head-to-head. CA Osasuna won the last meeting between these two 3-0 and were level here in April, and a side that has already won away this season is not short of the confidence to do it again. If the game stays goalless past the hour, as two of Osasuna's last three have, the visitors will be content, and a single goal on the break settles it against us.