Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia CF

In this fixture the venue has mattered more than anything else. The last four meetings split cleanly down the middle: at Valencia's ground it was 2-2 on 22 December 2024 and a 3-2 win for the home side on 8 March 2026, nine goals across the two. At Deportivo Alavés it was 1-0 to Alavés on 14 May 2025 and 0-0 on 20 October 2025 — one goal in a hundred and eighty minutes, and none of it conceded by the home side.

That is a small sample and we treat it as one. But the pattern is unambiguous: Valencia CF have not scored against Alavés on Alavés's ground across the two most recent visits, and have not won there in either.

The final table, meanwhile, puts Valencia above their hosts. They finished ninth on 49 points last season; Alavés came fourteenth on 43. Both ended the campaign with more goals against than for — Valencia 46 scored and 55 conceded, Alavés 44 and 56. Valencia won thirteen, drew ten and lost fifteen; Alavés won eleven, drew ten and lost seventeen. Ten draws apiece is worth holding on to, because it says what the most common single outcome looks like when sides of this standard meet.

Three matches each is not a form line, and the eighteen-place gap now separating them in the standings is a product of a sample far too small to carry it. We set it out, then discount it against the thirty-eight games above.

Alavés have seven points from three and have not been beaten. They opened with a 3-0 home win over Getafe on 15 August, drew 1-1 away at Rayo Vallecano on 20 August, and beat Villarreal 1-0 at home on 28 August. Five scored, one conceded, and the single goal against them came on the road. Their two home matches have produced four goals for and none against, the second of them against the club that finished third last season.

Valencia have one point and sit eighteenth. They drew 0-0 at home with Celta de Vigo on 22 August, lost 1-0 at home to Real Betis on 25 August, and lost 3-1 at Deportivo La Coruña on 30 August. One goal scored in three matches, none at all in the two at their own ground, four conceded. It is a poor start, and the goalscoring half of it is the poorer.

The first factor is the venue record, and it is the backbone of this preview. Two meetings at Alavés across the last two seasons, no Valencia goal, no Valencia win. Combine that with two home matches this season in which Alavés have again conceded nothing, and the away side has a scoring problem here that predates its current one.

The second is Valencia's attack generally. One goal in three matches, none at home, and 46 across the whole of last season — a return in the weaker half of the division even in a ninth-place year. A side that is not scoring does not win away from home, whatever else it does well.

The third is that this is not the mismatch the standings imply. Six points apart last season with the away team ahead is close to level. That judgement shapes the market we have chosen more than any other line on this page: we are not paying for a mismatch that the evidence does not show.

The fourth is the draw, which is why the pick takes the form it does. Both clubs drew ten times last season, one of the recent meetings here was goalless, and Valencia have already produced a 0-0 this season. Between two teams of similar standard with one of them short of goals, the stalemate is the single most likely individual result. Taking it out of the equation is worth more here than a longer price on the win alone.

The fifth is the unseen summer. A transfer window opened and closed since the table above was finalised, and our data shows nothing of it at either club. Where two sides finished six points apart, that churn could plausibly have reversed the order.

Our pick is Deportivo Alavés Draw No Bet at 1.60, and we rate it high confidence. Deportivo Alavés have not conceded to this opponent at their own ground across the last two meetings, have won both home matches this season without conceding, and are unbeaten overall. Valencia CF have scored once in three matches, have not scored at all at their own ground, have not won anywhere this season, and have not won at Alavés in either recent visit. This selection loses only to a Valencia win, and five separate strands say that is the least likely of the three outcomes.

We are straightforward about the market's record: our published breakdown carries no separate line for draw-no-bet, so there is no strike rate or return we can quote for it, and readers wanting our verified numbers should look to the over-under and 1X2 rows. The price sits in the 1.45 to 1.60 band, which has run at roughly minus one per cent — close enough to level to be neither argument for nor against.

The thing that beats it is Valencia being better than three weeks suggest. Forty-nine points and a ninth-place finish do not evaporate in a fortnight, they beat these opponents 3-2 as recently as March, and they scored at Deportivo La Coruña in a defeat that said more about their defence than their attack. One away goal taken well and this ends without much drama.