Everton vs Liverpool

Five recent meetings sit in the record, and they describe a rivalry Liverpool have edged rather than owned. The most recent came this season, on 20 September 2025, when Liverpool won 2-1 on their own ground having led 2-0 at the interval. Before that, on 2 April 2025, Liverpool again took the points at home, 1-0. The two visits to Everton's side of the city tell a different story: a 2-2 draw on 12 February 2025, and a 2-0 defeat on 24 April 2024. The fifth meeting, on 21 October 2023, was another Liverpool home win, 2-0.

So across those five, Liverpool have won three, Everton one, with one draw — but every Liverpool victory came at their own ground, and their last two trips across the park yielded a point and none at all. That is the single most important line in the entire preview, and it is the reason a favourite priced at 1.72 rather than something shorter looks about right. No meeting in the set was decided by more than two goals, and three of the five finished with two goals or fewer. This is not a fixture that has recently produced a comfortable afternoon for anyone.

Last season ended with the clubs in different worlds. Liverpool finished top on 84 points, 25 wins from 38, 86 scored and 41 conceded. Everton came 13th on 48, with 11 wins, 15 draws and a goal difference of minus two.

This season, with 32 played each, the gap has narrowed considerably. Everton sit tenth on 47 points with a goal difference of plus two — they are one point off matching a full 38-game haul with six still to play. Their home record reads six wins, four draws and six defeats, 21 scored and 19 conceded, with six clean sheets in those 16 matches. The recent home evidence is the encouraging kind: 3-0 against Chelsea on 21 March and 2-0 against Burnley on 3 March, either side of narrow home defeats to Manchester United and Bournemouth in February. They come into this off a 2-2 draw at Brentford on 11 April.

Liverpool are fifth on 52 points, plus ten. At home they have been strong — nine wins, four draws, three defeats, 29 scored and 17 conceded. On the road they have been ordinary: six wins, three draws and seven defeats, 23 scored but 25 conceded. Seven away losses is a heavy number for a side in the European places, and the recent ones are not against elite opposition. They lost 2-1 at Wolverhampton on 3 March and 2-1 at Brighton on 21 March, the two most recent away days on the record. Their form is otherwise decent — 2-0 at home to Fulham on 11 April, 1-0 wins at Sunderland and Nottingham Forest in February — but that away split is a genuine hole, not a statistical quirk.

The away record is the first factor and it cuts against the pick. A club with six away wins in 16 is not a side you back at short prices on the road out of habit; it is a side you back because of who they are facing and what is at stake. Both of those still favour Liverpool, but the honest framing is that this is a coin weighted by class rather than by recent evidence.

What the fixture means is the second factor, and here Liverpool have a clear advantage in motivation. On 52 points, they trail fourth by three and third by six with six matches remaining. Every away point is load-bearing for their European qualification. Everton, tenth on 47, are too far from the places above and comfortably clear of trouble below. The derby itself is their motivation, which is not nothing, but there is no league consequence attached to it.

Third, Everton's home defence has held up. Six clean sheets from 16, 19 conceded in total, and only three home matches all season in which they shipped more than two. Against a visiting attack that has scored 23 in 16 on the road, the base rate for Liverpool running away with this is low.

Fourth, the derby's own character. Three of the last five meetings finished with two goals or fewer, and none was a rout. Whatever the table says, this fixture has recently been decided in the margins, and margins are where favourites lose value.

The case for Liverpool is straightforward: they are five points and five places better off, they carry a superior goal difference by eight, they have won three of the last five meetings, and they have far more riding on the result than a mid-table opponent with nothing left to play for. Everton's season, at 47 points from 32, is already a success by their recent standards, and the risk of a flat afternoon after the emotional peak passes is real.

The case against is equally clear and we will not hide it. Liverpool's away form — six wins in 16, 25 conceded — is the weakest part of their season, they have lost their last two league away matches, and Everton have been solid enough at home to have beaten Chelsea 3-0 last month. Liverpool have not won on this ground in either of their last two visits.

We are backing Liverpool to win at 1.72, rated high confidence. That confidence rating leans on the class and points gap rather than on recent away evidence, and readers should know which of the two is doing the work.

The thing that beats it is the draw. In a derby between a side with nothing to lose and a visiting favourite that has drawn three and lost seven on the road, a tight 1-1 is the most likely single alternative, and the straight win market gives us no protection against it.