Everton vs Man City

Manchester City have won four of the five most recent meetings with Everton and drawn the other, and the totals in those games are as notable as the results. Twelve goals across five matches, of which Everton have scored two. The most recent was a 2-0 City win on 18 October 2025, goalless at the interval and settled in the second half. Before that, City won 0-2 at Goodison on 19 April 2025, again with nothing in the first 45 minutes. On 26 December 2024 the sides drew 1-1, level at half-time — the only point Everton have taken in the sequence. City won 2-0 at home on 10 February 2024, once more scoring only after the break, and the oldest of the five, on 27 December 2023, finished 1-3 to City at Goodison, with Everton leading 1-0 at half-time.

Two clear threads. First, City have taken 13 of a possible 15 points from these fixtures. Second, four of the five were goalless or level at the interval, and all four City wins were shaped after the break. This has been a slow-burning fixture rather than a rout from the first whistle, which matters when the selection needs a winner rather than a margin.

Everton are 11th on 47 points from 34 matches — 13 wins, eight draws, 13 defeats, 41 scored and 41 conceded for a difference of exactly zero. As with several sides around them, the away half of the season has been the more productive: 25 points from 17 on the road against 22 from 17 at Goodison, where the record is six wins, four draws and seven defeats with 22 scored and 21 conceded.

Their last eight at home have brought two wins, two draws and four defeats. The wins were emphatic — 2-0 against Burnley on 3 March and 3-0 against Chelsea on 21 March — but either side of them sit a 2-4 loss to Brentford on 4 January, 1-1 draws with Wolves and Leeds, a 1-2 defeat by Bournemouth on 10 February, 0-1 to Manchester United on 23 February and 1-2 to Liverpool on 19 April. Across the last six in all venues Everton have two wins, one draw and three defeats, the most recent a 2-1 loss at West Ham on 25 April.

Manchester City are second on 70 points from 33 games, having played fewer than most: 21 wins, seven draws, five defeats, 66 scored and 29 conceded for plus 37. Their away record reads nine wins, four draws and four defeats from 17, with 28 scored and 17 conceded — 31 points on the road, and seven away clean sheets.

They are unbeaten in eight, six of them won: 2-1 against Newcastle on 21 February, 0-1 at Leeds on 28 February, a 2-2 home draw with Nottingham Forest on 4 March, 1-1 at West Ham on 14 March, 0-3 at Chelsea on 12 April, 2-1 against Arsenal on 19 April and 0-1 at Burnley on 22 April. The last four away trips have produced three wins and a draw, and the two most recent were both won without conceding.

The first is the gap in the table: 23 points between second and 11th, with a goal difference swing of 37. That is a wide gap by any measure, and the away side's record on the road alone — 31 points from 17 — is worth more than Everton's entire home return of 22.

The second is the title race. City are six points behind Arsenal with two games in hand and five matches of their own still to play. There is no plausible scenario in which the visitors treat this as a fixture to see out, and that removes the usual late-season doubt about a side with nothing to gain.

The third is Everton's home profile. Six wins in 17 at Goodison, 22 goals scored there, and a habit of low-scoring evenings — both teams have found the net in only eight of their 17 home games. Against a visiting defence with seven away clean sheets, the hosts' route to a result is narrow.

The fourth, and it cuts the other way, is that Everton have beaten good sides at home this season, most obviously 3-0 against Chelsea on 21 March, and that their overall record of 47 points from 34 is not that of a soft opponent.

Everything about the matchup argues for the away side. City have 70 points to Everton's 47 despite playing a game fewer, they have won four of the last five in this fixture and conceded twice in those five, they are unbeaten in eight, and their away form of nine wins and four draws from 17 has yielded 31 points. Everton, meanwhile, have won six times in 17 at Goodison and taken one point from the last five meetings with these opponents.

We hold Man City Win at 1.85 with medium confidence, and the medium rating is a comment on the price rather than the argument. A straight 1X2 at 1.85 needs to land 54 per cent of the time to break even, and our own record in that price band is not flattering. Backing a heavy favourite in the 1X2 market rather than covering the draw is the aggressive choice here; a shorter, safer line would have asked less of the reasoning.

The thing that beats it is the pattern in the head-to-head itself. Four of the last five were level at half-time, and Everton have kept six clean sheets at home this season. An hour of nothing at Goodison, with the hosts defending deep and City's away travelling record showing four draws already, is exactly how this bet fails.