Germany vs Curaçao

Germany are one of the few teams in this opening round with a tournament record we can see: they played Euro 2024, and that is the only prior competition our source carries. On Curaçao there is nothing whatsoever — no previous tournament, no qualifying results, no meeting with Germany on record. A preview that fills the Curaçao column with descriptions of how they defend or who they rely on is writing fiction. We have one side's form and a blank page for the other, and the pick has to be judged on that.

Five matches, and they are worth going through because the pick here is about margin rather than the winner. Germany opened with a 5-1 win over Scotland, 3-0 up at the interval. They beat Hungary 2-0. They drew 1-1 with Switzerland. They beat Denmark 2-0 on 29 June, and their final match of that tournament was a 2-1 defeat to Spain on 5 July. Eleven goals scored, four conceded, one defeat in five.

That is a strong record, but read it against a handicap line and it is more sobering. The winning margins were four, two, two — and one draw, one one-goal defeat. Exactly one of those five matches was won by three or more. Germany at Euro 2024 were consistently better than their opponents and only once overwhelming.

Group E is Germany, Curaçao, the Ivory Coast and Ecuador, with the other pairing also scheduled for 14 June, so no earlier group result exists to inform this one. The tournament's shape matters more than usual: 48 teams, twelve groups of four, and 32 qualifiers for the round of 32 once the eight best third-placed sides are added to the twelve group winners and twelve runners-up. Two thirds of the field goes through. That reduces the pressure on a favourite to run up a score in its first match, because the group can be won without one. Germany carry the home designation on the fixture list, which at a World Cup is a formality rather than an advantage.

The selection is a margin bet on the one side in this fixture we have evidence for, against one we have none for. That is an uncomfortable position, and the Euro 2024 margins argue for caution rather than confidence: three or more goals came once in five. What supports it is the shape of the line rather than the form — on the Asian handicap a two-goal win returns the stake instead of losing it, so the bet survives the winning margin Germany produced most often at the Euros. We take Germany -2 on the Asian handicap at 1.85 with medium confidence. That price implies roughly 54 per cent before the refund leg is accounted for, which is why the two-goal cushion is doing much of the work.

What beats it is a disciplined, deep-lying opponent and a favourite with no need to chase: 1-0 and 2-1 are entirely ordinary opening-day scorelines, and either loses this.