Liverpool FC vs Brentford FC

Anfield has been an unforgiving venue for Brentford in this fixture's recent history. Liverpool won 3-0 there on 12 November 2023, a goal up at half time, and 2-0 on 25 August 2024, again leading at the interval. Both were clean sheets. The reverse fixtures have been livelier: Liverpool won 4-1 in west London on 17 February 2024 and 2-0 there on 18 January 2025, the second of those goalless at the break, before Brentford took the most recent meeting 3-2 at their own ground on 25 October, leading 2-1 at the interval.

That leaves Liverpool with four wins from the five games on record and Brentford with one, and it leaves the visitors with the more useful piece of evidence: the freshest result in the sequence is theirs. Seventeen goals across the five is 3.4 a game, though the two matches at Anfield contributed five of them and none to Brentford.

Liverpool arrive at the final round in a very different condition from the one they finished last season in. That campaign ended with 84 points, a 25-9-4 record, 86 goals scored and a goal difference of plus 45 at the top of the table. Thirty-seven games into this one they hold 59 points and a goal difference of plus ten, fifth on the ladder. Brentford finished last season tenth on 56 points at 16-8-14, with 66 scored and 57 conceded; they now sit ninth on 52 with a difference of plus three, tracking a broadly similar season.

The venue split favours the hosts clearly. Liverpool have won ten, drawn five and lost three of 18 at home, scoring 33 and conceding 19. Away from Anfield they are 7-3-9 with 33 conceded in 19, which is where most of the drop from last season has come from. Brentford have been solid at their own ground — eight wins, eight draws, three defeats from 19, 33 scored — and awkward but brittle on the road, where 18 trips have produced six wins, two draws and ten defeats. Only two away draws in 18 is a striking figure: Brentford's away games are almost always decided one way or the other.

Recent form muddies the picture the table paints. Liverpool beat Fulham 2-0 at home on 11 April, won 2-1 at Everton on 19 April and beat Crystal Palace 3-1 at home on 25 April, then lost 3-2 at Manchester United on 3 May, drew 1-1 with Chelsea at home on 9 May and lost 4-2 at Aston Villa on 15 May. Seven goals conceded in the two most recent defeats is the number that stands out. Brentford drew 2-2 with Everton and 0-0 with Fulham at home in April, lost 2-1 at Manchester United on 27 April, beat West Ham 3-0 at home on 2 May, lost 3-0 at Manchester City on 9 May and drew 2-2 with Crystal Palace at home on 17 May.

What each side is playing for is modest but real. Liverpool sit fifth on 59; Aston Villa are fourth on 62 and Bournemouth sixth on 56, which puts the hosts in a two-place band with a win the only route upward. Brentford on 52 sit between Chelsea on the same total and Sunderland on 51, with Brighton seventh on 53 and the cluster of clubs on 49 below them. A Brentford win takes them to 55 and within reach of seventh; a defeat exposes them to being passed by two or three of the sides beneath. Neither club is playing for survival, and neither can reach the places at the very top.

Liverpool's home record is the strongest argument for the hosts, and it is a good one: three home defeats in 18, with fewer than 1.1 goals conceded a game at Anfield. Against that, the away record explains why their goal difference sits at plus ten rather than something closer to last season's, and the last two matches both ended with three or more conceded.

Brentford's road profile is the counterweight. Six away wins is a respectable total for a side in ninth, and their refusal to draw away from home means they are more likely than most visitors to force the issue. They have also already beaten these opponents once this season.

Finally, this is the 38th round with both sides in mid-table security. Rotation, a subdued crowd and the general looseness of a dead-ish final day are as likely to shape the game as anything tactical.

The case for the pick rests on venue rather than form. Liverpool at Anfield have lost three times in 18 this season, have kept Brentford scoreless in both of the recent meetings played there, and are the better side across a season on points and goal difference. A market that pays out on a home win or a draw asks only that Liverpool avoid defeat at home to a side ninth in the table.

Our pick is Double Chance 1X (Liverpool FC or Draw) at medium confidence. Medium rather than high is the right label. Liverpool have conceded eight goals in their last three matches, two of which were defeats, and their record away from home this season shows a defence that has not been reliable. There is also a structural weakness in the double chance itself: Brentford have drawn only twice in 18 away games, so the draw leg offers less protection than the market normally provides, and the bet leans harder on a Liverpool win than the label suggests.

The thing that beats it is Brentford's October win in this fixture. They led 2-1 at half time that day and held on for 3-2, and their away season has been all-or-nothing rather than passive. A visiting side with six away wins, nothing to lose and a recent result over these opponents is a live threat, particularly on a final day where the hosts' incentive is one league place.