Liverpool vs Crystal Palace

Five meetings sit in our records and Crystal Palace have taken seven points from them: two wins, a draw and two defeats. That is not the profile of a side that turns up at Anfield to hold on.

The detail matters more than the tally. On 27 September 2025 Palace won 2-1 at Selhurst Park, leading 1-0 at half-time and holding it. On 25 May 2025 the sides drew 1-1 at Anfield, with Palace ahead at the interval. On 14 April 2024 Palace won 1-0 at Anfield, again from a first-half goal. Liverpool's two wins in the set both came at Selhurst Park: 1-0 on 5 October 2024 and 2-1 on 9 December 2023.

Read that back and the venue effect runs the wrong way for the favourite. In the two most recent meetings at Anfield, Liverpool have not won — a draw and a defeat, with Palace scoring first in both. Four of the five games have been decided by a single goal, and none has produced more than three. For a pick that needs a Liverpool win at a short price, this is uncomfortable reading and we are not going to pretend otherwise.

Liverpool finished 2024/25 top of the table on 84 points, twenty-five wins, nine draws and four defeats, 86 scored and 41 conceded. This season is a long way from that: 55 points from 33, sixteen wins, seven draws, ten defeats, 54 for and 43 against, and fifth place. They sit three points behind third and fourth with five matches remaining, which gives the fixture a clear purpose without making it a title question.

At Anfield they are nine wins, four draws and three defeats from sixteen, 29 scored and 17 conceded. Solid, but a 56% home win rate is not a fortress by the standards of the clubs above them, and seventeen goals conceded in sixteen home games is ordinary. The last six overall brought three wins, a draw and two defeats: 5-2 at home to West Ham on 28 February, 2-1 down at Wolverhampton on 3 March, 1-1 at home with Tottenham on 15 March, 2-1 down at Brighton on 21 March, 2-0 at home to Fulham on 11 April and 2-1 at Everton on 19 April.

Palace finished 2024/25 twelfth on 53 points, thirteen wins and fourteen draws, with 51 scored and 51 conceded. They are on a similar line this year: 43 points from 32 matches, eleven wins, ten draws, eleven defeats, 35 for and 36 against, thirteenth, and with a game in hand on most of the division.

The split is the striking part. At Selhurst Park they have four wins from seventeen. On the road they have seven wins, two draws and six defeats from fifteen, 19 scored and 17 conceded — a better record away than at home, and only three away matches in which they failed to score. Their recent form is the better of the two sides here: 1-0 at home to Wolverhampton on 22 February, 2-1 down at Manchester United on 1 March, 3-1 at Tottenham on 5 March, 0-0 at home to Leeds on 15 March, 2-1 at home to Newcastle on 12 April and 0-0 at home to West Ham on 20 April. Three wins, two draws and one defeat.

Liverpool score more than Palace and concede at a similar rate, but the margins are narrower than the price suggests. Liverpool average 1.81 goals a game at home and concede 1.06; Palace average 1.27 and concede 1.13 away. Those are not the numbers of a mismatch.

The away record is the central problem for the pick. Palace have won seven of fifteen on their travels — more away wins than home wins, and a rate that no thirteenth-placed side is supposed to carry. They have been shut out three times in fifteen away matches.

Motivation cuts Liverpool's way and it is the clearest edge on the page. Five rounds from the end, three points off third, Liverpool cannot afford dropped points at home to a mid-table side. Palace are thirteenth with a twelve-point cushion over eighteenth and nothing above them within reach; whatever they get here is a bonus.

Against that, Liverpool have lost three at Anfield already and their last six include defeats at Wolverhampton and Brighton. This is not a team in the kind of form that makes a short price look generous.

We are backing Liverpool to win at 1.40 with high confidence, and the confidence rating is the part of this pick we would most want to defend and can least easily. The case is real: Liverpool are twelve points and eight places above their opponents, they have won nine of sixteen at home, they have a reason to chase the game that Palace do not, and Palace have been beaten in six of fifteen away.

The case against is equally real. A price of 1.40 implies a strike rate above 71%, and Liverpool's home win rate this season is 56%. Palace have not lost at Anfield in either of the last two meetings, winning one and drawing one. Their away record is the better half of their season. Straight 1X2 loses us money over a long sample, and the honest reading is that we have taken a short price on a team whose home form does not support it, and rated our own confidence higher than the numbers do.

The thing that beats it is a Palace opener. In both of the last two meetings at this ground, Palace scored first — once winning 1-0, once drawing 1-1 — and four of the five games in the record were settled by one goal. A team that defends a lead well away from home, against a side that has already lost three at Anfield, is a live threat regardless of what the table says.