Newcastle vs Brighton Hove

The recent record between these two is unusually lopsided, and it is the single strongest plank under our selection. Brighton have not lost to Newcastle in the last five meetings.

The run began at the Amex on 2 September 2023, a 3-1 Brighton win with the hosts a goal up at the break. Newcastle then drew 1-1 at St James' Park on 11 May 2024, level at half-time and unable to break through after it. On 19 October 2024, again at St James' Park, Brighton won 1-0, the goal coming inside the first half. The clubs drew 1-1 on the south coast on 4 May 2025, Brighton leading at the interval. Most recently, on 18 October 2025, Brighton won 2-1 at the Amex, once more in front at half-time.

Three Brighton wins and two draws from five, and inside that, two visits to St James' Park that yielded a Brighton win and a draw. Newcastle have scored four goals across the five meetings and have led at half-time in none of them. For a double chance covering the visitors and the draw, that is close to the ideal historical backdrop.

Newcastle finished fifth in 2024/25 on 66 points, scoring 68 and conceding 47. Brighton were eighth on 61, with 66 scored and 59 conceded. The gap has reversed this season.

After 34 matches Newcastle sit 15th on 42 points with a goal difference of minus four, 46 scored and 50 conceded. Their home record — eight wins, two draws, seven defeats from 17, with 30 scored and 28 conceded — is a genuinely mixed picture rather than a fortress. Away they have taken 16 points from 17 games.

The current run is the part that matters. Newcastle have lost their last four: 1-2 at home to Sunderland on 22 March, 2-1 at Crystal Palace on 12 April, 1-2 at home to Bournemouth on 18 April and 1-0 at Arsenal on 25 April. St James' Park has been particularly leaky in the second half of the season — across their last six home matches they have won once, beating Manchester United 2-1 on 4 March, and lost the other five, conceding at least two in every one of those defeats.

Brighton are sixth on 50 points with a goal difference of plus nine, 48 scored and 39 conceded, and they arrive in the better condition by some distance. Since a 0-1 home defeat to Arsenal on 4 March they have gone five matches unbeaten: 1-0 at Sunderland on 14 March, 2-1 at home to Liverpool on 21 March, 2-0 at Burnley on 11 April, 2-2 at Tottenham on 18 April and 3-0 at home to Chelsea on 21 April.

The qualification is their away record over the full season, which is more modest than that run suggests: five wins, five draws and seven defeats from 17 trips for 20 points, with 21 scored and 22 conceded. Brighton have been a much better home side than a travelling one. What has changed is the recent shape of it — their last four away games have produced three wins and a draw, the last away defeat coming at Aston Villa on 11 February.

The first factor is the eight-point gap and where each side is heading. Brighton in sixth still have something to protect with four matches left; Newcastle in 15th, with a negative goal difference and four rounds left to fill, do not. Late-season fixtures where one side is settled and the other is not tend to run in the direction of the side that still wants something.

The second is the head-to-head, which is not a small sample of one but five consecutive meetings without a Newcastle win, including two at St James' Park.

The third is form, and it is emphatic. Four straight Newcastle defeats against five Brighton matches unbeaten. Newcastle have conceded two or more in five of their last six at home; Brighton have conceded two goals in their last four away games combined.

The fourth cuts the other way and is why the confidence is not higher. Newcastle have won eight home matches this season and scored 30 goals doing it — this is not a side that has stopped creating. Brighton's away record across the whole campaign is seven defeats in 17, which is not the profile of a team that can be relied on to take something from a hostile ground.

The selection is built on three things pointing the same way: a head-to-head in which Newcastle have not beaten this opponent in five attempts, a home side that has lost five of its last six at St James' Park, and a visiting side unbeaten in five with three wins in their last four on the road. The double chance widens that into covering a draw as well, which matters given how many of these meetings have finished level.

We back Double Chance X2 (Brighton Hove or Draw) at 1.55 with medium confidence. The rating is deliberate rather than timid: 1.55 is not a generous price for a double chance, and Brighton's full-season away record of five wins in 17 does not justify treating them as the settled favourite that their current run implies. The one thing that beats it is Newcastle's home scoring — 30 goals in 17 matches at St James' Park — finally meeting a Brighton defence that has been beaten seven times on the road this season.