Nottingham Forest FC vs AFC Bournemouth

Nottingham Forest have not beaten these opponents in any of the five meetings on record. Bournemouth took three: 3-2 at the City Ground on 23 December 2023 with the game goalless at half time, 5-0 at home on 25 January 2025 from a 1-0 interval lead, and 2-0 at home on 26 October with both goals already scored by the break. The other two were draws, 1-1 at Bournemouth on 4 February 2024 and 1-1 at the City Ground on 17 August 2024, the latter with Forest ahead at half time.

Sixteen goals across five games is 3.2 a match, though that figure leans heavily on the 5-0. The more useful reading is the pattern of the two games played at Forest's ground: a narrow defeat and a draw, both of them games in which Forest held a lead or stayed level into the second half. Bournemouth have been the better side in this fixture, but the version of it staged in Nottingham has been tight rather than one-sided.

The two clubs ended last season closer than their positions suggest. Forest were seventh on 65 points with a 19-8-11 record; Bournemouth were ninth on 56 at 15-11-12. Both scored 58 and conceded 46 for an identical goal difference of plus 12. This season has pulled them apart: with 37 played Forest are 16th on 43 points and minus three, Bournemouth sixth on 56 and plus four.

Bournemouth's season has a particular texture. Thirteen wins, seven defeats and 17 draws is the most drawn campaign in the division this year, and it explains why a side beaten only seven times sits sixth rather than higher. At home they are 7-10-2 across 19 games — ten draws at their own ground — with 29 scored and 20 conceded. On the road they are 6-7-5 from 18, scoring 28 and conceding 33.

Forest have inverted the usual split. Eighteen home games have brought four wins, seven draws and seven defeats, with 19 goals scored, barely one a game. Nineteen away games have brought seven wins, three draws and nine defeats and 28 goals. Whatever has gone wrong for them this season, more of it has gone wrong at the City Ground than away from it.

Recent weeks have been the best stretch of Forest's season. They drew 1-1 with Aston Villa at home on 12 April, beat Burnley 4-1 at home on 19 April, won 5-0 at Sunderland on 24 April and 3-1 at Chelsea on 4 May, drew 1-1 with Newcastle at home on 10 May and lost 3-2 at Manchester United on 17 May. Bournemouth have not been beaten since the start of April: 2-1 wins at Arsenal on 11 April and at Newcastle on 18 April, a 2-2 home draw with Leeds on 22 April, a 3-0 home win over Crystal Palace on 3 May, a 1-0 win at Fulham on 9 May and a 1-1 home draw with Manchester City on 19 May.

The table has already resolved the question that dominated Forest's spring. On 43 points with one round left, they cannot be reached by Tottenham, 17th on 38, or West Ham, 18th on 36, since neither can pass 41 or 39 respectively. What remains for Forest is 15th or 16th: Crystal Palace sit on 45 and a Forest win would take them to 46.

Bournemouth's stake is sixth place. Brighton, seventh on 53, can reach 56, and their goal difference of plus nine to Bournemouth's plus four means a Brighton win paired with a Bournemouth defeat would change the order. Fifth is only available in combination with results elsewhere. It is a real incentive, if not a dramatic one.

Bournemouth's away form is the strongest single argument against the home side. Three of their last four road trips were won, at Arsenal, at Newcastle and at Fulham, all by a single goal. That is not the profile of a visiting side likely to be overrun.

Set against it: Forest's home record is poor, but their recent scoring has come mostly on their travels, and their last three home outings — against Villa, Burnley and Newcastle — produced two draws and a 4-1 win. And Bournemouth's habit of drawing, at home and away, is the most consistent feature of their year.

This is the least comfortable call in the round, and it is worth saying so plainly. A market that pays out on a home win or a draw is being asked to back a side 16th in the table against one sixth, with the visitors unbeaten in six and the hosts having won four times in 18 at their own ground. On raw standing, the visiting side is the stronger team.

What holds the pick up is the shape of Bournemouth's season rather than Forest's quality. Seventeen draws in 37 games is the highest total in the league, and their away games this season have produced seven of them from 18. Forest, meanwhile, have drawn seven of 18 at home. The draw is the outcome both clubs have produced more often than any other in this exact context, and the double chance collects it.

Our pick is Double Chance 1X (Nottingham Forest FC or Draw) at medium confidence. Medium is generous rather than harsh here: the argument is built on a draw rather than on a home win, and Forest have not beaten these opponents in any of the five meetings on record.

The thing that beats it is Bournemouth's away form of the last six weeks. A side that has won at Arsenal, at Newcastle and at Fulham since the middle of April, with a top-six place to protect, against hosts whose league position is already fixed within a single place, is exactly the kind of visitor that takes three points on the final day.