Panama vs England

The two sides in this fixture come into the last round of Group L from opposite ends of it. England have four points from a 4-2 win over Croatia on 17 June and a goalless draw with Ghana on 23 June. Panama have none, having lost 1-0 to Ghana on 17 June and 1-0 to Croatia on 23 June. Ghana are level with England on four; Croatia sit on three.

England's position is close to secure before kick-off. A point takes them to five, and only one other team can finish above that mark, because Croatia and Ghana play each other and cannot both climb past it. Even defeat leaves England on four points, which at this tournament is rarely fatal: 32 of the 48 teams reach the round of 32, the eight best third-placed sides among them. England are playing for the order of the group rather than for their place in it.

Panama's route is narrow to the point of being theoretical. A win takes them to three points, which only matters if Croatia lose their own match at the same time and the goal difference between the two then falls Panama's way — Panama are on minus two, Croatia on minus one. Even then, three points and a negative difference is the kind of third place that finishes outside the qualifying eight. Realistically Panama are playing for their first goal and first point of the tournament, and we should say so.

There is no previous meeting between the two nations in our records, so the head-to-head is empty and stays empty.

Panama's two defeats share a shape. Both were 0-0 at half-time, both were settled by a single goal after it, and both were against sides that have themselves scored sparingly — Ghana have one goal in the tournament, Croatia three. Two goals conceded in 180 minutes is bettered in this group only by Ghana, who have not conceded at all, and matched only by England. The problem is at the other end: no goals, no points, and no evidence yet that they can score against this level of opponent. Panama were not at Euro 2024, so those two matches are the whole of the prior form available on them.

England's record here is split between an open match and a closed one. They were level 2-2 with Croatia at the interval before winning 4-2, then produced ninety goalless minutes against Ghana. Four scored, two conceded, unbeaten.

Their Euro 2024 was a study in tight games. England won 1-0 against Serbia on 16 June 2024, drew 1-1 with Denmark on 20 June and 0-0 with Slovenia on 25 June — two goals in three group matches. They then beat Slovakia 2-1 in the last 16 on 30 June, having trailed at half-time. Their quarter-final against Switzerland on 6 July is one of the fixtures our source stores with the penalty shootout folded into the score, so the recorded figure is not a football result; it shows only that the tie was level after extra time. They beat the Netherlands 2-1 in the semi-final on 10 July and lost 2-1 to Spain in the final on 14 July. Four of those seven matches produced two goals or fewer, and the Slovenia game produced none at all.

The first is that England have very little to gain from this ninety minutes and something real to lose. A point does everything they need; the incentive to chase a fourth or fifth goal simply is not there. A heavy favourite that needs only a draw is the classic setting for a low-urgency ninety minutes.

Second, Panama have conceded twice in the tournament, both times after half-time, both times by the odd goal. Whatever else the two defeats say, they do not describe a defence that collapses. The first half of both matches passed without a goal at either end.

Third, England's own tournament record is full of tight scorelines. The 4-2 against Croatia is the outlier in a body of evidence that includes a goalless draw here and a group stage in 2024 that produced two goals across three matches.

Fourth, the two Group L fixtures kick off simultaneously. England will not know whether Croatia or Ghana is winning, which removes the one thing that might have pushed them to force the pace late.

Fifth, the fixture list has Panama as the home team. At a World Cup that is an ordering of names on a schedule and nothing more, and we assign no weight to it.

This is a contrarian selection and we will describe it as one. Panama have not scored a goal at this tournament and England have lost one match across the two tournaments our records cover. The Panama-win half of the double chance is close to dead weight; what we are really buying is the draw, plus a small tail.

The case for the draw is that England need only a point, that Panama have conceded once per match while keeping both first halves goalless, and that England's tournament football is consistently low-scoring — a 0-0 against Ghana here, and two goals in three group matches at Euro 2024. Double chance is the market where our record is strongest — a 69.4% strike rate, and one of only two of the five we publish in that has made money across 374 settled picks — and this is the sort of low-event fixture where covering two results makes more sense than backing one.

We are backing Double Chance 1X (Panama or Draw) with medium confidence, and medium is generous rather than cautious here; the reasoning leans almost entirely on one argument about incentives.

The thing that beats it is England simply being better. They put four past Croatia, the same Croatia who beat Panama, and a side that has not scored in 180 minutes has no way back once it falls behind.