Real Madrid vs Alaves

Real Madrid have won each of the last five meetings between these clubs, but the margins are more interesting than the run. Four of those five were settled by a single goal. The most recent came in Vitoria on 14 December, a 2-1 away win in which Madrid led at half-time and were pegged back to a one-goal cushion. On 13 April 2025, again in Vitoria, Madrid won 1-0 with the only goal of the game arriving before the interval, and on 21 December 2023 they won 1-0 at the same ground after a goalless first half.

The two Bernabeu fixtures in the sample tell different stories. On 14 May 2024 Madrid won 5-0 and were three up at the break, the only genuinely one-sided game in the series. On 24 September 2024 they won 3-2 having led 2-0 at half-time, which is the version of this fixture that should give a backer of a short price some pause: a two-goal lead in the capital was not comfortable.

So the pattern is a clean sweep for the hosts across two and a half seasons, with twelve goals scored and three conceded, but with a scoreline more often narrow than emphatic. Alaves have found the net in two of the five, including the last visit to Madrid.

Real Madrid sit second on 70 points from 31 games with a goal difference of plus 36, nine points behind Barcelona at the top with seven matches to play. They finished last season second as well, on 84 points, so the shape of the campaign is familiar.

The home record is the reason this pick carries the confidence it does. Sixteen games at the Bernabeu have produced thirteen wins, one draw and two defeats — 40 of their 70 points — with 37 goals scored and thirteen conceded. Away from home they have nine wins, three draws and three defeats from fifteen, worth 30 points. The two home defeats came against Celta on 7 December, 0-2, and against Getafe on 2 March, 0-1, and both were low-scoring reverses rather than collapses.

The caveat is that their last two matches have been the weakest stretch of the run-in so far. They lost 2-1 at Mallorca on 4 April, trailing at the interval, and then drew 1-1 at home with Girona on 10 April in a game still goalless at the break. One point from six, and a home fixture already dropped this month.

Alaves are seventeenth on 33 points from 31, a goal difference of minus eleven, one place above the relegation places. Last season they finished fourteenth on 42 points, so this is a harder campaign than the previous one. Their split is the familiar one for a side down there: 21 points from fifteen home games, twelve from sixteen away, where three wins, three draws and ten defeats brought sixteen scored and 28 conceded.

Their form arriving here, though, is better than the table suggests. They are unbeaten in four: 1-1 at home with Villarreal on 13 March, a 4-3 win at Celta on 22 March, 2-2 at home with Osasuna on 5 April and a 3-3 draw at Real Sociedad on 11 April. Seven goals scored across their last two away trips is not the profile of a side that turns up to defend a scoreline.

The first factor is the quality gap as the season has measured it: 37 points and fifteen places, with a goal difference 47 better. Over 31 games neither number is an accident.

The second is the venue. Thirteen home wins in sixteen, and 37 goals scored there, is the strongest single record on this page, and Alaves have taken twelve points from sixteen away days.

The third is the state of the title race. Nine points adrift with seven to play, the hosts cannot treat a home game against a lower-half side as anything but three required points. That is the kind of context that usually removes the risk of a flat performance, and it is worth more in April than it would be in October.

Fourth, and against the pick, is Madrid's own recent slip. A defeat at Mallorca and a home draw with Girona inside a fortnight is a warning that this team has been beatable lately, and one of those dropped results came at this ground.

Fifth, Alaves are not arriving in freefall. Four games unbeaten, seven goals in two away matches, and a defensive record on the road that concedes freely but an attack that has started scoring. A side in that state is more likely to trade punches than to sit in and lose 4-0.

Everything structural points one way. Madrid have won thirteen of sixteen at home, scored 37 there and conceded thirteen; they have won all five recent meetings with this opponent; they are 37 points better off over 31 games; and with nine points to make up on the leaders and seven fixtures remaining they have every reason to attack this from the first minute. Alaves have three away wins all season and have conceded 28 on their travels.

The honest deductions are that the hosts have taken one point from their last two, dropping points at home in the process, and that this fixture has often been close: four of the last five decided by a single goal, and a 3-2 at the Bernabeu inside the sample.

We are backing Real Madrid to win at 1.25 with high confidence. The price is short enough that it needs to be right most of the time to be worth taking, and the home record is what justifies it.

The thing that beats it is an Alaves side currently unbeaten in four scoring first and forcing a nervous evening, as Girona did here eleven days earlier.