Roma vs Fiorentina

Five meetings across three seasons give this fixture more history than most, and the recent balance has swung to Roma. The current campaign's first instalment went Roma's way on 5 October, a 2-1 win in Florence in which the visitors led 2-1 at the interval and then held on. Before that came a 1-0 Roma win at the Olimpico on 4 May 2025, decided by a first-half goal, and a 2-0 Roma win in Rome on 5 January 2025 that was settled by half-time. Go back further and the picture changes: Fiorentina won 5-1 at home on 27 October 2024, the heaviest scoreline in the sequence, and the two drew 2-2 in Florence on 10 March 2024 and 1-1 in Rome on 10 December 2023.

Across the five, Roma have three wins, Fiorentina one, with one draw. The relevant split is by venue. In Rome, this fixture has produced 1-0, 2-0 and 1-1 — three matches, five goals, and no Fiorentina victory. In Florence, it has produced 5-1, 2-2 and the 2-1 Roma win of October. The Olimpico version of the game has been tight; the Tuscan one has not.

Roma finished fifth last season on 69 points, scoring 56 and conceding 35. Fiorentina finished directly behind them in sixth on 65, with 60 scored and 41 conceded — four points and one place between them a year ago. The current table has stretched that gap to 24 points.

Roma arrive sixth on 61 with a goal difference of +19 and nineteen league wins. The home record is the pillar of the season: eleven wins, three draws and three defeats from seventeen at the Olimpico, 28 scored and 10 conceded, with nine clean sheets. All three home defeats came before the turn of the year, against Torino on 14 September, Inter on 18 October and Napoli on 30 November, and each was by a single goal. Since 1 January they have taken five wins and three draws from eight home matches. Their last three read a 3-0 defeat of Pisa on 10 April, a 1-1 home draw with Atalanta on 18 April and a 2-0 win at Bologna on 25 April.

Fiorentina sit fifteenth on 37 points at -7, with eight wins, thirteen draws and thirteen defeats from 34. Thirteen draws is the defining number of their year. Away from home they have four wins, six draws and seven defeats from seventeen, 18 scored and 25 conceded; the four away wins came at Bologna on 18 January, at Como on 14 February, at Cremonese on 16 March and at Verona on 4 April.

Crucially, they arrive on a run. Fiorentina have not lost a league game since a 3-0 defeat at Udinese on 2 March: since then, 0-0 at home to Parma, 4-1 at Cremonese, 1-1 at home to Inter, 1-0 at Verona, 1-0 at home to Lazio, 1-1 at Lecce and 0-0 at home to Sassuolo. Seven matches, three wins, four draws, one goal conceded in the last four.

The table gap is the headline and it is real: 24 points, and a home side with a record at this ground that few visitors have troubled. Three home defeats in seventeen, none of them since November, is the sort of platform that makes a short price defensible.

Set against it, Fiorentina's current form is the most awkward fact on the page. A side unbeaten in seven, conceding once in four, is not the fifteenth-placed team its points total describes, and their run has been built on exactly the trait that ruins a straight home-win bet — an ability to draw.

Motivation is uneven and worth weighing. Roma in sixth on 61 are in a live scrap for the European places with the season closing, so there is no case for them treating this lightly. Fiorentina on 37 sit closer to the bottom half than the top and have the residual business of making certain of their status; the difference between a point and none may matter to them more than it usually would at this stage.

The venue history reinforces the shape rather than the outcome. Rome has produced 1-0, 2-0 and 1-1 in this fixture. Roma's home wins this season have often been narrow, and Fiorentina's recent games have been low-event: a 2-1 or 1-0 is a far more natural projection than a comfortable margin.

Our published pick is Roma to win at 1.55 with high confidence. The argument for it is the strongest available on the page: a home side twenty-four points clear of the visitors, eleven home wins in seventeen, nine home clean sheets, three home defeats all before December, and a head-to-head in Rome that reads three matches without a Fiorentina win.

We should be candid about where the call is stretched. The high confidence label sits uneasily against an opponent who has not lost in seven, and 1.55 falls in a price band our own settled record has punished. A stronger case would have needed either a longer price or a market that survives a Fiorentina point — and the honest reading is that the pick is priced for the table rather than for the form book.

The one thing that beats it is the draw, and it is not a remote outcome. Fiorentina have drawn thirteen league games this season, six of them away, and have taken points from Inter, Lecce and Sassuolo since late March. If they set up to keep the game at one goal or fewer, as they have repeatedly done since March, the most likely way this selection fails is 0-0 or 1-1 rather than an upset.