Sevilla FC vs Real Madrid CF

A single draw, on 21 October 2023, is the only result in this fixture that has not gone Real Madrid CF's way in the period our records cover — 1-1 on this ground, goalless at the break. Madrid won the other four. The most recent was 20 December 2025 in Madrid, a 2-0 home win that was 1-0 at the interval. Before that, 18 May 2025 in Seville finished 0-2, goalless at half-time and settled after the break. On 22 December 2024 Madrid won 4-2 at home, already 3-1 up by the interval, and on 25 February 2024 they won 1-0 in a game that was scoreless at half-time.

Two things stand out. The first is that Sevilla FC have taken one point from these five and scored three goals across them. The second is that the two fixtures played in Seville were the tight ones — 1-1 and 0-2, both goalless at half-time, neither a rout. Madrid's heavy scoring against Sevilla in this sample happened in Madrid. If there is any encouragement in the record for a home side, it is that this particular ground has produced slow, low first halves rather than early collapses.

Madrid finished second last season on 84 points, 26 wins, six draws, six defeats, 78 scored and 38 conceded. Thirty-six games into this campaign they are second again on 80 points with 25 wins, five draws, six defeats and a goal difference of plus 39. Their away record is 10 wins, four draws and four defeats from 18, with 31 scored and 19 conceded — good, without being the away record of a side sweeping the league. Their last eight league matches produced a 3-2 win over Atlético, a 2-1 defeat at Mallorca, a 1-1 draw at home with Girona, a 2-1 win over Alavés, a 1-1 draw at Betis, a 2-0 win at Espanyol, a 2-0 defeat at Barcelona on 10 May and a 2-0 home win over Oviedo on 14 May.

Sevilla finished 16th last season on 41 points — 10 wins, 11 draws, 17 defeats, 42 scored, 55 conceded — and are 11th on 43 points now with 12 wins, seven draws and 17 defeats. The attack has improved slightly to 46 goals; the defence has not, with 58 conceded, and only one club in the division has let in more. At home they are exactly even: seven wins, four draws, seven defeats, 24 goals scored and 24 conceded in 18.

Their recent run is the most interesting thing about them. Since a 2-0 home defeat to Valencia on 21 March and a 1-0 loss at Oviedo on 5 April, Sevilla have beaten Atlético 2-1, lost 2-0 at Levante and 2-1 at Osasuna, then won three in a row: 1-0 over Real Sociedad, 2-1 over Espanyol and 3-2 away at Villarreal on 13 May. That is a side arriving in form rather than drifting out of the season.

The stakes are the whole argument. Madrid sit 80 points with 36 played, eleven behind the leaders and eleven clear of third, and six points remain. Both gaps are larger than what is left to win. Whatever this match decides, it does not change where Madrid finish, and a squad in that position two rounds from the end of a long season is a different proposition from one chasing something.

Sevilla still have reasons to turn up. They are 11th on 43, five off seventh with six to play for, and four clear of the eighteenth place — comfortable, but not mathematically finished either way. A club with something to gain against a club with nothing to protect is the shape of fixture that produces upsets and, more often, sluggish draws.

Rest is a live factor. Madrid played on 14 May, three days before this, and travel south. Sevilla played on 13 May but had the reward of winning at Villarreal to carry into it.

Against all that, the raw gap is 37 points. Madrid's away defence has conceded 19 in 18 trips, Sevilla's home attack has managed 24 in 18. There is no version of this where the hosts are the better side; the bet is about circumstances, not quality.

Our pick is Double Chance 1X (Sevilla FC or Draw) at 1.42, rated medium confidence.

The reasoning runs entirely through motivation and rest. Madrid cannot improve or worsen their league position in these last two rounds — the arithmetic settled that before this weekend — and they arrive three days after a home fixture. Sevilla come in on three straight wins, including one at a top-four ground, and the two previous meetings in Seville were a 1-1 draw and a 0-2 that stayed goalless until half-time. A tight, low first hour at this stadium is the pattern the record supports.

The honest counterweight is the price. Backing a side 37 points worse off to avoid defeat, at 1.42, is asking for a lot of value from an argument that rests on guessing at a visiting side's appetite. Our own numbers say double chance is the market to be in — 69.4% strike, a 0.4% return over 374 settled picks — but they also say the band up to 1.45 has run at minus 0.6%, and this is exactly the sort of pick that gets there: correct market, thin margin.

The thing that beats it is straightforward. Madrid have won ten of 18 away this season and scored 31 doing it; if they treat this as a normal fixture for even an hour, Sevilla's defensive record at home says the game is gone.