Udinese vs Torino

Five league meetings since the end of 2023, and they divide neatly for the purposes of this selection. Three of the five saw both teams score: Torino 1-1 Udinese on 23 December 2023, Udinese 2-2 Torino on 29 December 2024, and most recently Torino 1-2 Udinese on 7 January 2026, a game that was goalless at the break and produced three goals after it. The other two did not: Udinese 0-2 Torino on 16 March 2024 and Torino 2-0 Udinese on 23 April 2025.

Three from five is the number that supports the pick, and it deserves an honest caveat rather than a flourish. Two of the three were draws in which neither side managed more than two goals, and the two that failed the market were both Torino clean sheets, one home and one away. Across the five, 13 goals in total, an average under three a game. This is a fixture that has produced both teams scoring more often than not, but never in bulk, and the January meeting four months ago is the only one of the three where a winner emerged.

Both clubs finished on 44 points last season, Torino 11th with 39 scored and 45 conceded, Udinese 12th with 41 scored and 56 conceded. Neither has moved far. Thirty-four rounds into this one, Udinese are 11th on 44 points from 12 wins, eight draws and 14 defeats, 41 scored and 46 conceded. Torino are 13th on 41, 11 wins, eight draws and 15 defeats, 39 scored and 56 conceded for a goal difference of minus 17.

Udinese's last five: 2-0 at Genoa on 20 March, 0-0 at home to Como on 6 April, 3-0 at Milan on 11 April, a 0-1 home defeat to Parma on 18 April and 3-3 at Lazio on 27 April. Only the last of those five saw both teams score. Four of the five featured a clean sheet one way or the other, and in two of them Udinese did not score at all.

Torino's five: a 2-3 defeat at Milan on 21 March, 1-0 at Pisa on 5 April, 2-1 at home to Verona on 11 April, 0-0 at Cremonese on 19 April and 2-2 at home to Inter on 26 April. Three of those five had goals at both ends, and the two that did not were both away trips, one of them scoreless.

The home and away split is where this selection gets awkward, and it is worth setting out plainly. Udinese have scored 16 goals in 17 home league games this season — under one a game — from a home record of five wins, five draws and seven defeats. Torino have scored 16 in 17 away games, from four wins, five draws and eight defeats. Two attacks that average less than a goal per game in the venue they are about to occupy is not the raw material a both-teams-score bet wants.

The other half of the same numbers is friendlier. Torino have conceded 30 in their 17 away games, comfortably the leakier side of their season and close to two a game. Udinese have shipped 20 in 17 at home. Neither defence has been a wall, and the goals in this fixture historically have arrived because both back lines give something up rather than because either attack is prolific.

Curiously, Udinese are the better team away from home this season: seven away wins against five at home, and 25 goals scored on the road against 16 in Friuli. Whatever has held them back has held them back here specifically, and three of their last four home matches finished with them failing to score.

The last factor is the fixture itself. Udinese on 44 points and Torino on 41 are both clear of a relegation zone in which 16th holds 36, and both are far enough from the European places that four rounds will not change anything material. Nothing is riding on the result. That usually cuts toward open, loosely contested football and rotated selections, which helps the pick, but it can equally produce a flat 1-0 that nobody in the ground remembers by Monday.

The argument for the pick runs through the head-to-head and the defensive records: three of the last five meetings had goals at both ends, Torino concede close to two a game on their travels, Udinese have shipped 20 at home, and a fixture with nothing at stake between two mid-table sides tends not to be tightly policed. Three of Torino's own last five matches also passed this market.

Set against that, the attacking numbers are genuinely poor. Sixteen home goals in 17 for Udinese and 16 away goals in 17 for Torino means the two relevant halves of these seasons have averaged under a goal each, and Udinese have blanked at home in three of their last four. Both-teams-score is also the market our published record handles worst, and a preview that pretended this was a strong call would be misreading its own evidence.

We are on BTTS Yes at 1.70 with medium confidence, and medium is generous rather than cautious here. The case rests on two leaky defences and a head-to-head pattern, not on either forward line.

The thing that beats it is the obvious one: a Udinese home performance of the kind they have produced repeatedly this spring, where they control the game without scoring, or win it without conceding. Their last four at Friuli read 3-0, 0-1, 0-0 and 0-1 — not one of them passing this market. If either side gets the first goal early and settles, there is little in these attacking records to suggest the other one answers.