US Lecce vs AS Roma

Lecce have scored one goal in their last four home meetings with Roma. The sequence at the Stadio Via del Mare reads 1-1 in February 2023, 0-0 in April 2024, 0-1 in March 2025 and 0-2 in January 2026 — five goals across four matches, three of them Roma's, and not one of those four fixtures reaching three goals in total.

Widen it to the full record and the picture holds. Nine meetings, seven Roma wins, two draws, no Lecce victory, 21 goals shared. The heavier scorelines all belong to Roma at their own ground: 4-0 in February 2020, 4-1 in December 2024. Everything played in Puglia has been small.

The most recent pair went 0-2 in Lecce and 1-0 in Rome, which is the compressed version of the whole relationship: Roma win, Lecce do not score, the total stays low. Both teams have found the net in four of the nine meetings on record, and three of those four were played in Rome.

For a market about whether both sides score, that is close to the ideal head-to-head profile — not a single high-variance blowout to explain away, but a consistent pattern of one team failing to convert at the same venue across four different seasons.

Lecce finished 2025/26 seventeenth on 38 points, staying up by four, with 10 wins, 8 draws and 20 defeats. They scored 28 goals in thirty-eight matches, the joint-lowest total of any club that avoided relegation, and conceded 50.

At home they were 5-5-9 with 13 scored and 24 conceded — thirteen goals in nineteen matches at their own ground, and ten of those nineteen ended with Lecce failing to score at all. That is the number this preview is built on. Their five home wins were all by a single goal, and no home match last season was won by more than one, which tells you how narrow their best afternoons were.

Roma took third on 73 points, a 23-4-11 record with 59 scored and 31 conceded. That defensive total was the second-lowest in Serie A, and at their own ground it was extraordinary: 33 scored, 10 conceded, eleven clean sheets in nineteen.

Their away record is the odder one. Roma were 10-1-8 on the road — ten wins, eight defeats, and exactly one draw in nineteen matches. They scored 26 and conceded 21 away, keeping seven clean sheets. This is a side that either wins or loses when it travels, almost never splits the points, and concedes rarely enough that its defeats tend to be by a single goal.

Both clubs will have played once: Lecce away at Venezia on 23 August, Roma at home to Fiorentina on the 24th. One match each, a week before this one, and no basis for a form line either way.

It begins and very nearly ends with Lecce's inability to score at home. Ten blanks in nineteen home matches last season, thirteen goals in total, and one goal in four home meetings with this specific opponent. Over half of Lecce's home season contained no goal from Lecce. There is no way to build a case for both teams scoring around a fact like that.

Roma's away defence is the other half. Seven clean sheets in nineteen road matches, 21 conceded, and 31 across the entire campaign — only Como conceded fewer in the division. The visiting side here is well equipped to produce the eleventh home blank.

The record at this ground points the same way from a different angle: 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 0-2 in the four most recent visits, with a combined five goals. Both teams scored in exactly one of them, and that was in February 2023.

The risk is not a Lecce shutout — it is a Roma one. Roma lost eight of their nineteen away matches last season. If Lecce nick a 1-0 of the kind they managed five times at home last year, this bet still wins, but a Lecce goal followed by a Roma equaliser is the realistic losing scenario, and Roma's 26 away goals say they will usually get one.

The calendar nudges gently in our favour. Matchday two, both squads a week removed from a single fixture, no rhythm established. Early-season matches between a defensively strong visitor and a low-scoring host are where this market pays; the goals in this pairing have historically arrived at the Olimpico, not in Puglia.

Our pick is Both Teams to Score - No at 1.55, rated medium confidence.

This rests on one team's measured inability to score at home and the other's measured ability to prevent it. US Lecce failed to score in ten of nineteen home matches last season and managed thirteen goals there in total. AS Roma kept seven clean sheets in nineteen away fixtures and conceded 31 goals across the whole campaign, the second-fewest in the division. In four visits to this ground Roma have conceded one goal in total.

The rating is medium rather than high because the market can also lose from the other end. Roma dropped eight away matches last season — they are not a side that guarantees itself a goal, and their single away draw in nineteen shows how binary their road season was. A 1-0 to Lecce keeps this bet alive; a 1-1, which was the scoreline in the earliest of these four home meetings, does not.

The signal to watch is what Lecce do with their first attacking phase. Five home wins by one goal apiece last season describes a team that occasionally lands one punch and then defends it. If that punch lands early here, Roma's 26 away goals become the problem — but on the evidence of ten home blanks in nineteen, the more likely story is that it never lands at all.