West Ham vs Everton

Three of the last five league meetings between these clubs have finished level, and the two that did not were separated by a single team having a good day. The most recent was 1-1 at Goodison Park on 29 September 2025, Everton ahead at half-time and pegged back after it. The one before, also 1-1 at Goodison, came on 15 March 2025. On 9 November 2024 the sides drew 0-0 at the London Stadium.

The decisive pair are instructive in opposite directions. West Ham won 3-1 at Goodison on 2 March 2024 from a goalless first half, their only win in the set. Everton won 1-0 at the London Stadium on 29 October 2023, again after a scoreless opening 45.

Two features stand out. First, the goals: totals of two, two, nil, four and one across the five, with only that 3-1 clearing three. Second, the venue. Both meetings at the London Stadium in this sample brought West Ham nothing — a goalless draw and a 1-0 defeat. A pick on the home win has to argue past that.

West Ham finished 2024/25 fourteenth on 43 points, eleven wins, ten draws and seventeen defeats, 46 goals scored and 62 conceded. This season has been worse again: 33 points from 33 matches, eight wins, nine draws, sixteen defeats, 40 for and 57 against, seventeenth in the table and two points above eighteenth with five rounds to play. The season-long home record is four wins, four draws and eight defeats from sixteen, 22 scored and 28 conceded.

That headline number hides a genuine improvement. Across their last six at the London Stadium — 1-2 to Nottingham Forest on 6 January, 3-1 against Sunderland on 24 January, 1-1 with Manchester United on 10 February, 0-0 with Bournemouth on 21 February, 1-1 with Manchester City on 14 March and 4-0 against Wolverhampton on 10 April — they have taken two wins and three draws, conceding five goals in six. The Forest defeat in early January is the last time they lost at home. Their most recent outing was a goalless draw at Crystal Palace on 20 April.

Everton finished 2024/25 thirteenth on 48 points with eleven wins and fifteen draws, 42 scored and 44 conceded. They have improved: 47 points from 33, thirteen wins, eight draws, twelve defeats, 40 for and 39 against, tenth, and three points off sixth with five to play. Their travelling record is the better half of their season — seven wins, four draws and five defeats from sixteen, 18 scored and 18 conceded.

Their form is respectable rather than flawless. From the last six: 2-3 winners at Newcastle on 28 February, 2-0 at home to Burnley on 3 March, 0-2 down at Arsenal on 14 March, 3-0 at home to Chelsea on 21 March, 2-2 at Brentford on 11 April and 1-2 at home to Liverpool on 19 April. On the road specifically, their last six away matches brought three wins, two draws and a single defeat.

The table says this should be an Everton afternoon. They are fourteen points and seven places above the hosts, with a positive goal difference against minus seventeen, and an away record — seven wins in sixteen — that comfortably outstrips West Ham's home record of four wins in sixteen. On the season-long numbers, the favourite is the visiting side.

The counter is jeopardy. West Ham are seventeenth with two points between them and eighteenth and five matches left, which is the sharpest incentive on the pitch. Everton are tenth, three points off sixth, so they are not playing for nothing, but the difference in what a defeat costs each side is enormous.

The recent home run is the second plank. Five home matches without defeat, five goals conceded in the last six at the London Stadium, and a 4-0 two weeks earlier. Whatever the season-long figure says, the version of West Ham that has played at home since January is a different proposition from the one that lost eight there.

Working against all of it is the fixture's own history. Three of the last five meetings were draws, and the two at this ground yielded a 0-0 and an Everton win. Low-scoring, tight games are the pattern, and tight games do not reliably produce home wins.

We are backing West Ham to win at 1.80 with medium confidence. The argument is not the league table — on the table this is the wrong side of the bet — but the combination of a home run without defeat since early January, a defence that has conceded five in six at the London Stadium, and a relegation position that makes these three points worth far more to them than to their visitors. Everton have more to play for than a comfortable mid-table side normally would, but not remotely as much.

We will be straight about the weaknesses. West Ham have won four of sixteen at home all season, and 1.80 requires a strike rate near 56% to break even. Straight 1X2 loses us money over a long sample, and 1.80 opens a price band in which we have historically lost money. Neither of the two London Stadium meetings in our head-to-head record produced a West Ham win. This is a case built on form and motivation over a five-week window, set against a season of evidence pointing the other way, and the confidence rating should be read as exactly that.

The thing that beats it is the draw. Three of the last five meetings finished level, West Ham have drawn three of their last four at home, and Everton have taken four draws from sixteen away matches. A cagey, low-scoring afternoon in which the hosts are content not to lose is both the most common outcome in this fixture's recent history and the one that costs us the stake.