Argentina 2-0 Austria: FIFA World Cup Match Report

Two goals, both to the same side, and a total that landed on the line rather than beneath it: Argentina 2-0 Austria would have gone the other way for our purposes had either team scored once more. Argentina led 1-0 at half-time and added the second after the break, which is the sequence that keeps a total low — a lead for the better side, no need to chase it, and an opponent without the profile to force the game open.

Austria came in on three points from a 3-1 win over Jordan, Argentina on three from a 3-0 win over Algeria. The winner of this took control of the group, and Argentina duly did. What stands out is how little the match resembled either side's opening fixture. Between them they had produced seven goals on matchday one and two here, which is what tends to happen when the two organised teams in a group meet each other instead of the two that are not.

Argentina finished the group at eight scored and one conceded. Austria finished at six and six, a symmetry produced entirely by their other two matches.

It put Argentina on six points with a round to spare and made the final matchday academic for them. They beat Jordan 3-1 to finish on nine and took the group without dropping a point.

For Austria, defeat turned matchday three into a straight shootout with Algeria, both sides level on three. That match finished 3-3, leaving them tied on four and separated only by tiebreaks, with the final table placing Austria third. A win here would have removed the ambiguity altogether; a draw would have sent them into the last round a point clear of Algeria. Losing left them in the one scenario where a 3-3 draw was not enough.

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 Goals at 1.85. It was a read on the match-up rather than on either team — two well-drilled sides, both preferring control to chaos, meeting in a game that mattered for seeding, with neither carrying a reason to over-commit early. Argentina's group record of 3-0, 2-0 and 3-1 is that of a side which scores freely; the argument was that they would not need to here, and they did not.

At 1.85 the price was fair for a total that finished on the number rather than comfortably below it. Under 2.5 with exactly two goals is a winning bet, but it is a winning bet with no room in it, and the honest reading is that this landed on merit and margin in roughly equal measure.

Verdict: won