Japan 1-1 Sweden: FIFA World Cup Match Report

A goalless first half and a goal each after it settled second place in Group F. Japan 1-1 Sweden was the fixture the group came down to, and it resolved it with the minimum of drama: level at the break, level at the end, and a single point that was worth far more to one side than the other.

Japan came in on four points, from a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands and a 4-0 win over Tunisia. Sweden came in on three, having beaten Tunisia 5-1 and lost 5-1 to the Netherlands — a swing of ten goals across two matches that left their group record looking far more volatile than Japan's.

Sweden needed the win. Japan needed the point, and the goalless first half suited exactly one of them. When both sides scored after the interval, the arithmetic was unchanged, which meant the second half was played under a scoreline that was already decisive in Japan's favour every minute it stood.

Sweden finished the group stage having scored seven and conceded seven, with five of each coming in a single match apiece. Japan finished 7:3, the more even distribution of the two.

Japan took second place on five points. Sweden finished third on four. The Netherlands beat Tunisia 3-1 in the parallel fixture to win Group F on seven, and Tunisia finished bottom without a point, having conceded twelve.

The result is a neat illustration of how much matchday-one performances are worth later. Each side won once and drew with the other; the difference was the third match. Japan took a point from the Netherlands and Sweden took a 5-1 defeat from them, and that single fixture accounts for the whole of the one-point gap that separated the two at the end.

Our pre-match call was Double Chance 1X (Japan or Draw) at 1.42. It landed on the draw, and the qualification arithmetic is what made the selection attractive at that price.

The logic was that Japan needed only a point and had already shown, in the 2-2 with the Netherlands, that they could take one from stronger opposition than this. Sweden's group record contained a 5-1 win and a 5-1 defeat, which is the profile of a side capable of anything and reliant on the version that turns up. Backing the team with the safer requirement against the team with the wider variance is the straightforward read here, and it came in without needing the second half to go any particular way.

Verdict: won