Netherlands 5-1 Sweden: FIFA World Cup Match Report

Two goals up at the interval and five by the end, the Netherlands produced the biggest win Group F saw. Netherlands 5-1 Sweden came six days after the Dutch had been held 2-2 by Japan, and the response to those dropped points could hardly have been more emphatic.

The second half is where it became a rout. At 2-0 this was still a competitive match against a side that had opened the tournament by beating Tunisia 5-1 — Sweden had scored as many goals in their first match as the Netherlands would score in this one. Three more after the break turned a controlled lead into the most one-sided result of the group.

Sweden's tournament is oddly readable through this single scoreline. They scored seven and conceded seven across three matches, and five of those concessions came in this one afternoon. Take the match out and their record reads 6:2 with four points; leave it in and their goal difference is zero. It did not come out, and that was part of why they finished outside the qualifying places. The Netherlands, for their part, ended the group on ten goals scored, the highest figure in Group F, and half of them were scored here.

It put the Netherlands top of the group and effectively out of reach. Four points from two matches, a goal difference of plus five, and a final fixture against a Tunisia side already beaten twice — which they won 3-1 to finish on seven points with a 10:4 record.

For Sweden it was the beginning of the end. Five goals behind on difference after starting their tournament with a 5-1 win of their own, they went into the last round needing a result against Japan and drew 1-1. Four points, a goal difference of zero, third place, one point behind Japan. The margin that eliminated them was considerably smaller than the margin they lost by here.

Our pre-match call was Netherlands to win at 1.65, and the result was not in doubt after half-time.

The case was straightforward. The Netherlands had already taken a point off Japan, the side that would finish second, while Sweden's headline 5-1 had come against Tunisia, who ended the group with no points and twelve goals conceded. One of those results was much better evidence than the other, and the market appeared to weight them equally. The margin here — five goals, three of them after the interval — suggests the gap between these teams was wider than a 1.65 price allowed for. This was the strongest of our Dutch group calls and the one match in Group F where the favourite looked underpriced rather than short. Verdict: won