Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth: Premier League Match Report
Our record: Newcastle · Bournemouth
Final Score
Newcastle
1 — 2
Bournemouth
Key Moments
Half-time: Newcastle 0-1 Bournemouth
Second half: Newcastle 1-1 Bournemouth
Final score: Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth
Post-Match Analysis
Match Summary
Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth followed the pattern that had been defining Newcastle's month. The visitors led 1-0 at half-time and the second period finished 1-1, which left Newcastle scoring once and losing by one — for the third consecutive match.
The sequence coming in was 1-2 at home to Sunderland and 1-2 at Crystal Palace. This made three. Newcastle were 14th on 42 points from 32 matches with a goal difference of -2, a season that had drifted out of contention at both ends and was now producing the same result on repeat.
Bournemouth were 11th on 45 with -1, three points and three places better off, and had arrived in an unusual state: four consecutive draws — 1-1 with Sunderland, 0-0 with Brentford, 0-0 at Burnley, 2-2 with Manchester United — followed by a 2-1 win at Arsenal in their previous match. A team that had stopped losing without starting to win, and had then won at the league leaders' ground. The reverse fixture on the south coast in September had finished 0-0.
What It Settled
Bournemouth reached 48 points and a goal difference of zero, a second successive win after the run of draws and a rise into the group contesting the European places. Winning at Arsenal and then at Newcastle in the space of a week is a specific kind of form, and it moved a mid-table season into something with an outside chance attached.
Newcastle stayed on 42 with the difference falling to -3. Three matches, three defeats, three goals scored, six conceded — and each one a single-goal loss, which is the most frustrating way to accumulate nothing. Six rounds remained, and while only six points separated them from sixth, a side losing by a goal every week was not going to close that. Three points had separated them at kick-off; six did afterwards.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match call was Newcastle Win at 1.62, rated high confidence, and both the price and the rating were out of line with the evidence. Newcastle had lost their previous two by the same 1-2 scoreline and had won once in five. Bournemouth were three points above them in the table and had just won at Arsenal. There was no plausible reading of those facts in which the home side was a heavy favourite. We were pricing off reputation and home advantage rather than off what either team had been doing since March. Verdict: lost