Scotland 0-3 Brazil: FIFA World Cup Match Report

Two behind at the interval and three by the end, Scotland's World Cup finished the way the group table had always suggested it would. Scotland 0-3 Brazil was decided in the first half, and the third goal after the break was the difference between a defeat and the goal difference Scotland carried out of the tournament.

Brazil needed the win. Morocco were beating Haiti 4-2 on the same day, and anything short of three points here would have handed the group to them. Brazil got the three points, and with them the goal difference: they finished top on 7:1 against Morocco's 6:3, both sides level on seven points.

Scotland's group was defined by a single goal. They beat Haiti 1-0 in their opening match, lost 1-0 to Morocco and lost 3-0 here — one scored, four conceded, three points from three fixtures. It was the narrowest of tournaments until this match, and this is where the margin finally went. For Brazil the clean sheet completed a group in which they conceded once in three matches, that one arriving in the 1-1 draw with Morocco on the opening day. Seven scored, one conceded, no defeat, and a group won on the last afternoon.

The group, on goal difference. Brazil and Morocco both finished on seven points, and Brazil's 7:1 record beat Morocco's 6:3 by three. The three goals scored here mattered, but the shutout mattered more — Morocco conceded twice on the same day and Brazil conceded nothing.

Scotland finished third on three points and were eliminated, with Haiti bottom without any. The structure of Group C was set in the opening round, when Brazil and Morocco drew with each other and Scotland beat Haiti. After that every match went to the stronger side on paper, and the final round simply confirmed the order the first had implied.

Our pre-match call was Brazil to win at 1.55, rated high confidence, and it was effectively settled by half-time.

The reasoning barely needs restating. Brazil went into the final round unbeaten with a goal difference of plus four, Scotland had scored once in two matches, and Brazil had a group to win on the day. Every one of those factors pointed the same way, which is what a high-confidence rating is supposed to mean. The only realistic risk was a Scotland side digging in for a point, and the two-goal lead at the interval removed that inside forty-five minutes. Short odds on a favourite with something concrete to play for against an opponent with nothing left to chase — 1.55 was a fair price and the outcome was never in question. Verdict: won