Sweden 5-1 Tunisia: FIFA World Cup Match Report

At half-time this was a one-goal game. It finished Sweden 5-1 Tunisia, with three unanswered goals after the interval turning a contest into the largest winning margin of Group F's opening round.

The 2-1 scoreline at the break is worth holding onto, because it is the only part of the ninety minutes in which Tunisia were competitive at this tournament. They scored here and they scored once more, against the Netherlands ten days later, and that was the sum of their World Cup. Everything else was concession — twelve of them across three matches, a total matched only by Iraq in the entire group stage.

For Sweden the four-goal margin proved to be the whole basis of their campaign rather than a comfortable start to it. They lost 1-5 to the Netherlands five days later and drew 1-1 with Japan on the final day, finishing the group with seven scored and seven conceded. A goal difference of exactly zero, built from a five-goal win, a four-goal defeat and a draw — a symmetry that reads like a joke until you remember what a zero goal difference was worth in this tournament.

Sweden finished third in Group F on four points and went through as one of the eight best third-placed sides, meeting France in the Round of 32. That qualification was decided on goal difference across groups, and Sweden's stood at zero entirely because of this match. Strip out the four-goal swing and they finish on minus four, in the same bracket as the third-placed teams that went home.

The Netherlands won the group with seven points and Japan took second with five. Tunisia finished bottom with none, and their 2:12 record started here. Group F sent three of its four teams into the knockout stage, and the side left behind was the one beaten on the opening weekend.

Our pre-match call was Double Chance 1X (Sweden or Draw) at 1.42. It won, though the final scoreline flatters how safe it was. At 2-1 into the break, Tunisia were one goal from turning the bet into a coin-flip, and a double chance at that price has no room in it for a nervous hour. The direction of the pick was right; the certainty the result implies was not there for the first half. What we can claim is that the reasoning about which side would impose tempo eventually held — it just held forty-five minutes later than a 1.42 price assumes. Verdict: won