TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Bundesliga Match Report, 25 October 2026

Our preview of this match was written on 18 October 2026 but only went live on 1 November, after the final whistle. Its pick is reviewed below as it was written, and it is left out of our win rate and bankroll.

Hoffenheim had gone the whole season without a clean sheet until this one, and they ended the run against the side fourth in the table. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen was goalless at the interval, with all three goals after the break.

The two clubs arrived ten places apart. Hoffenheim were fourteenth on six points at minus three, and every one of their six league matches had featured goals at both ends: fourteen conceded, never fewer than one in a game, and never more than two scored. This match broke both patterns at once. Three is their highest total of the season, and the zero beside it is a first.

Leverkusen came in fourth on thirteen points at plus seven, with a split running the other way from their hosts'. At home they had won all three and conceded once; their three away games had produced sixteen goals, eight of them against. This time they did not score at all, the first league match of the season in which Leverkusen have been kept out.

The head-to-head has turned with it. Leverkusen won the first two meetings on record and Hoffenheim both of 2025/26, and this third straight Hoffenheim win is also their biggest in the series.

Back-to-back wins for the first time this season, after the 2-1 at Mönchengladbach a week earlier, take Hoffenheim to nine points from seven and a goal difference of zero. Leverkusen stay on thirteen, now at plus four.

Set against last season, the two clubs sit on opposite sides of their old pace. Hoffenheim finished fifth on 61, close to 1.8 points a game, and nine from seven is well short of that. Leverkusen finished sixth on 59, and even after this, thirteen from seven is a slightly better rate. Neither figure is settled at this stage.

What the result does show is that Hoffenheim's defensive record so far was not fixed. A side that had conceded in every match kept out one that had scored in every match. One game is not a trend, but it is the first sign the numbers can move.

Our preview's call was Over 2.5 Goals at 1.44.

Four readings pointed the same way, which is why it was rated high: all six Hoffenheim matches over the line, five of Leverkusen's six, every Leverkusen away game at four goals or more, and both teams scoring in each Hoffenheim game. Beneath them sat one claim, that two leaky defences would keep the totals high. Half of it failed. Hoffenheim kept their first clean sheet, and all three goals came from one end, more than they had scored in any match this season. The preview had passed on both teams to score because of that market's record in our book, not because of anything in this fixture. High confidence on a premise that broke at one end was more than the evidence carried.

Verdict: not counted. The pick would have won, but the preview only went live after kick-off.