Union Berlin 1-2 Wolfsburg: Bundesliga Match Report
Our record: Union Berlin · Wolfsburg
Final Score
Union Berlin
1 — 2
Wolfsburg
Key Moments
Half-time: Union Berlin 0-1 Wolfsburg
Second half: Union Berlin 1-1 Wolfsburg
Final score: Union Berlin 1-2 Wolfsburg
Post-Match Analysis
Match Summary
Union Berlin 1-2 Wolfsburg was a goal down at the break and shared 1-1 afterwards, which leaves the visitors winning by the margin they established in the first half. Wolfsburg had lost four of their previous five before this; they arrived in the worst form in the division and left with three points.
The state of them was startling. Wolfsburg were 17th on 21 points from 29 matches with a goal difference of -26: 1-2 at home to HSV, 1-1 at Hoffenheim, 0-1 at home to Bremen, 3-6 at Leverkusen, 1-2 at home to Frankfurt. One point from five, and five points behind St. Pauli in the relegation play-off place with five rounds left.
Union Berlin were 11th on 32 with -17, eleven points clear of Wolfsburg and safe in everything but formality. Their own record was not much better — 1-4 at home to Bremen, 0-4 at Bayern, 1-1 with St. Pauli, 1-3 at Heidenheim — with a 1-0 at Freiburg the exception. Wolfsburg had won the reverse fixture 3-1 in December, which was the single piece of evidence pointing towards this outcome.
What It Settled
Wolfsburg went to 24 points and a goal difference of -25, cutting the deficit to St. Pauli from five points to two and giving a survival campaign that had looked finished a fortnight earlier something to work with. Four rounds remained, and two points is a gap that can close in a single afternoon.
Union Berlin stayed on 32 with the difference sliding to -18. Their season had nothing at stake at either end and this confirmed it, which for a side who had conceded four twice in five matches is probably the most generous reading available. Eleven points had divided them beforehand; eight did after. What Union had done, without meaning to, was hand a direct rival of the clubs beneath them the result that made the bottom of the Bundesliga interesting again.
Prediction Review
Our pre-match call was Union Berlin Win at 2.05. It lost, and the case for it was weaker than the price suggested. Backing a home side eleven points better off is normally sound; backing this one required ignoring that Union had taken four points from five and had lost 1-4 and 0-4 in the same stretch. Wolfsburg's record was worse, but the December fixture between them had gone 3-1 to Wolfsburg, and a team fighting relegation against a team with nothing to play for is a matchup where the table is the least useful input available. Verdict: lost