AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina

Roma have won the last three meetings, and the most recent of them was a 4-0 in May 2026. Before that a 2-1 in Florence in October 2025 and a 1-0 in Rome in May 2025. Three wins, seven goals scored, one conceded.

Narrow the ten recorded meetings down to the five played in Rome and the record becomes the argument. Roma have won four and drawn one, scoring eleven and conceding two: 4-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 and 3-1. Fiorentina have not scored more than once at this ground across five visits and have never won there in the sequence. For a fixture between clubs that have often finished within a few places of each other, that is a striking one-sided run.

Away from Rome the picture flips and is worth stating, because it is where Fiorentina's case lives. They beat Roma 5-1 at home in October 2024, 2-1 in May 2023 and 2-0 in May 2022. Three home wins in five, including the heaviest result in the whole ten-match set. Across all ten meetings the split is five Roma wins, three Fiorentina wins and two draws, with 31 goals — but the venue tells you which half of that applies here.

The 5-1 is the outlier that keeps this fixture from being written off, and it happened in Florence. This match is not in Florence.

Roma finished 2025/26 third. Seventy-three points, 23 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats, 59 goals scored and 31 conceded for a difference of plus 28. They closed the campaign W-W-W-W-W, the only side in the division to end on five straight wins.

The home record is the reason this pick is rated as it is. At the Olimpico they were 13-3-3 for 42 points, scoring 33 and conceding ten across nineteen matches, with eleven home clean sheets. Ten goals conceded at home was the best figure in Serie A by five, and eleven clean sheets in nineteen means Roma shut out well over half their home opponents. Only three teams beat them in Rome all season.

The other feature of that home record is how quiet the matches were. Just six of Roma's nineteen home fixtures produced three goals or more. This is not a side that wins 4-1; it is a side that wins 1-0 and 2-0 with the game closed off by the hour.

Fiorentina finished fifteenth on 42 points from 9 wins, 15 draws and 14 defeats, 41 scored and 50 conceded. Fifteen draws was the highest count in the division, and it describes a season of matches that were neither won nor lost. Their away record was 5-6-8 for 21 points, with 20 scored and 29 conceded in nineteen matches and four away clean sheets. They failed to score in seven of those nineteen and eleven of them went past two and a half goals, so Fiorentina on the road were involved in open matches without controlling them. They closed the season D-W-D-L-D.

The Roma home defence is the foundation. Ten goals conceded in nineteen matches, eleven clean sheets. Fiorentina's away attack managed 20 goals in nineteen and was blanked seven times. Those two records meeting is the single clearest mismatch on this weekend's card, and it is the foundation of everything else.

Sitting on top of it is the venue-specific head-to-head. Five meetings in Rome, four Roma wins and a draw, eleven goals to two. Fiorentina have not taken three points here in the recorded sequence and have scored more than one goal here once.

Then the base rate against the price. Roma won thirteen of nineteen home matches last season, which is 68 percent; 1.70 asks for 59. That gap exists before any adjustment for an opponent that finished 31 points behind them and won five of nineteen away fixtures.

The shape of the likely scoreline matters for anyone tempted by a goals market instead. Only six of Roma's nineteen home matches cleared two and a half goals. The expected outcome here is a controlled 1-0 or 2-0, not an emphatic one, and the result market is the correct way to express that view rather than a handicap.

The realistic threat is the draw rather than a Fiorentina win. Fifteen draws in 38 is a genuine team trait, and Roma drew three of nineteen at home. A Fiorentina side content to defend a point on the opening weekend, in August heat, against a team that scored 33 home goals across a season, is the version of this match that costs us.

Our pick is AS Roma Win at 1.70, rated high confidence.

Four separate inputs agree here, which is the standard we hold high-confidence positions to. AS Roma conceded ten goals in nineteen home matches last season and kept eleven clean sheets — the best home defensive record in the division. They won thirteen of those nineteen, a rate comfortably above what this price requires. ACF Fiorentina finished 31 points behind them, won five away matches all season and failed to score in seven. And in five recorded meetings at this ground Roma have won four and drawn one, scoring eleven and conceding two.

The reservation, and there is one, is the draw. Fiorentina drew fifteen league matches last season, more than anyone else in Serie A, and a first-matchday away side with a point in mind is exactly the profile that turns a 1-0 into a 0-0. That is the outcome to price, not a Fiorentina win — they have not won in Rome across the last five attempts.

Expect this to be tight rather than emphatic. Roma's home matches were among the lowest-scoring in the division and their wins were built on shutting the game down early, so anyone looking at the same evidence and reaching for an over is reading the record backwards.

The thing to watch is whether Fiorentina commit anyone forward before the seventieth minute. If they sit at 0-0 and hold their shape, this is a nervous evening. Roma's eleven home clean sheets say they will still be level rather than behind when it opens up, and that has been enough in four of the last five meetings here.