Aston Villa FC vs Liverpool FC

The venue is the whole story in this record. Aston Villa have not beaten Liverpool in any of the five most recent meetings, but all three Liverpool wins came at Anfield and both games at Villa Park were drawn — and drawn with plenty of goals. On 19 February 2025 the sides finished 2-2 in Birmingham, Villa leading 2-1 at the interval. On 13 May 2024, also at Villa Park, it ended 3-3, with Liverpool 1-2 ahead at half-time. Ten goals in those two home fixtures.

At Anfield the pattern reverses cleanly. Liverpool won 2-0 on 1 November 2025, leading 1-0 at the break; 2-0 on 9 November 2024, again a goal up at half-time; and 3-0 on 3 September 2023, two of them inside the first 45. Villa have not scored at Anfield in any of the three.

Five matches, 17 goals, three Liverpool wins and two draws — and every one of the draws was in the fixture we have here. For a selection that covers the home side and the draw, that split is the single most useful fact available, though the honest qualifier is that two matches is a very small sample on which to hang a venue effect.

Aston Villa are fifth on 59 points from 36 games — 17 wins, eight draws, 11 defeats, 50 scored and 46 conceded for a difference of plus four. Villa Park remains the foundation: 11 wins, two draws and five defeats from 18, 28 scored and 20 conceded, worth 35 of a possible 54 points. Away from home they have taken 24 from 18.

Form has been uneven for two months. Since the start of March, Villa have lost 1-4 at home to Chelsea on 4 March, lost 1-3 at Manchester United on 15 March, beaten West Ham 2-0 on 22 March, drawn 1-1 at Nottingham Forest on 12 April, won 4-3 against Sunderland on 19 April, lost 0-1 at Fulham on 25 April, lost 1-2 at home to Tottenham on 3 May and drawn 2-2 at Burnley on 10 May. Two wins in eight, and the most recent home outing was that Tottenham defeat.

Liverpool are fourth on 59 points from 36 — identical to their hosts on points and matches played, and ahead only on goal difference, plus 12 to plus four, from 60 scored and 48 conceded. Their away season has been the weak half all year: seven wins, three draws and eight defeats from 18, with 27 scored and 29 conceded, for 24 points. They have conceded more than they have scored on the road.

Their recent run: 2-1 defeat at Wolves on 3 March, 1-1 at home to Tottenham on 15 March, 2-1 defeat at Brighton on 21 March, a 2-0 home win over Fulham on 11 April, 1-2 at Everton on 19 April, 3-1 at home to Crystal Palace on 25 April, a 3-2 defeat at Manchester United on 3 May and a 1-1 home draw with Chelsea on 9 May. Three wins, two draws and three defeats in eight, with the two most recent producing one point.

The first is that this is a straight duel. Both sides are on 59 points from 36 games with two matches left, occupying fourth and fifth, and separated by eight goals of difference. Villa need something from this game to have a realistic route to finishing above Liverpool. Neither side has any reason to manage the game conservatively, and neither is in a position to rotate.

The second is the venue split on both sides. Villa have 35 home points from 18; Liverpool have 24 away points from 18. Measured only at the grounds in question, the hosts have been comfortably the better team this season, whatever the overall table says.

The third is Liverpool's away defence. Twenty-nine conceded in 18 road matches, against 27 scored, and both teams have found the net in 12 of those 18. That is not the profile of a side that travels to shut a game down, and the two Villa Park meetings in the record produced 2-2 and 3-3.

The fourth is the honest counterweight: Villa have won two of their last eight and lost at home to Tottenham twelve days before this. Their home record is a season-long average, not a current one, and the recent version of this team has not been convincing.

The argument for the selection rests on venue and on the fixture's own history. Villa have taken 35 points from 18 at home and Liverpool 24 from 18 away; the last two meetings in Birmingham finished 2-2 and 3-3; Liverpool have conceded more than they have scored on their travels this season. Both teams arrive level on points with fourth and fifth at stake and two rounds remaining, which is the sort of match where a draw is a genuine third outcome rather than a fallback — and this pick takes the draw as well as the home win.

We are on Double Chance 1X (Aston Villa FC or Draw) at medium confidence, with no price published on this selection. Medium is the right rating and we would not argue for more. Villa's recent form is two wins in eight, including a home defeat by Tottenham on 3 May, and across the five most recent meetings with Liverpool they have not won once. A double chance is being used here to buy insurance against a home side that has not been reliable rather than to back one that has.

The thing that beats it is a Liverpool away performance of the kind they produced at Sunderland and Nottingham Forest in February, winning 1-0 twice in a fortnight. If they defend the way they did then, Villa's home record will not save the bet.