Crystal Palace FC vs Liverpool FC

Selhurst Park gave Crystal Palace their only win in the last four meetings. On 27 September 2025 they led 1-0 at half-time and beat Liverpool 2-1. The rest of the run went to Liverpool or ended level: a 3-1 win at Anfield on 25 April 2026, two goals up by the break; a 1-1 draw at Anfield on 25 May 2025, after Palace had led at half-time; and a 1-0 win at Selhurst on 5 October 2024, the only goal coming before the interval.

That is two Liverpool wins, one for Palace and one draw, with ten goals across the four. Both of the recent games at Selhurst were settled by a single goal, one each way. The older results carry less weight than usual, because the distance between these clubs has grown since. Last season's 2-1 came from a Palace side that finished 15th, and this season's version sits four places lower.

Liverpool finished 5th last season on 60 points, from 17 wins, nine draws and 12 defeats, with 63 scored and 53 conceded. Palace were 15th on 45 points: 11 wins, 12 draws and 15 defeats, 41 scored and 51 conceded.

Nine games into this season, Palace are 19th on seven points. Two wins, one draw and six defeats, nine goals scored and 21 conceded: the most goals against in the division and the worst goal difference, at -12. They have lost their last three without scoring, 5-0 at Brighton on 18 October, 2-0 at home to Newcastle United on 25 October and 2-0 at Tottenham on 31 October. At Selhurst they have one win from four, a 3-1 over Nottingham Forest, alongside defeats by Manchester City, Ipswich Town and Newcastle, with ten goals conceded in those four games. They have failed to score in five of their nine. Both wins came in open games, 3-2 at Fulham and 3-1 against Forest, and when they lose they tend to lose clearly: five of their six defeats were by two goals or more.

Liverpool are 6th on 15 points from four wins, three draws and two defeats, 11 scored and nine conceded, and the overall line hides a sharp split. At Anfield they have won one of five, drawing with Nottingham Forest and Fulham and losing 3-0 to Manchester City and 1-0 to Arsenal on 1 November. Away they are unbeaten in four: 2-2 at Newcastle, 2-0 at Ipswich, 1-0 at Bournemouth and 2-1 at Brentford, seven goals scored and three conceded. Their ten away points are the second-highest total in the division, behind only Arsenal's 12 from five games, and no side has conceded fewer away from home.

Venue matters more than usual for Liverpool, and here it points the right way. Their problems this season have been at Anfield, where both defeats came against the top two. On the road only Arsenal have more points, and Arsenal have played one more away game.

Palace arrive in the worst stretch of their season. Three defeats in a row, no goals and nine conceded is a run that has left them in the bottom three, and the home record offers no shelter: one win, ten goals against.

The scoring problem is the sharper of Palace's two. All nine of their goals have come in four games; in the other five they did not score at all. That leaves them needing to break down the joint-meanest away defence in the league. Liverpool have let in three on their travels, and only Newcastle have scored twice against them away from Anfield.

The stakes are uneven. The bottom three are Manchester United and Palace on seven and Sunderland on five, with Nottingham Forest and Coventry City two points further up on nine, so Palace need something from every home game. Liverpool sit a point behind Chelsea in fourth and Everton in fifth. A side that has to chase points against a strong away team is exposed in a way that a side content with a draw is not.

The counterweight is Liverpool's own bluntness. Eleven goals in nine is a modest return for a side this high, three of their games have been drawn, and last season's visit here was lost from a goal down at half-time.

We take Liverpool FC to win at 1.70 with high confidence, because the away side's strength and the home side's weakness point the same way: an away record of three wins and a draw from four, with three goals conceded on the road; a Crystal Palace FC side that has lost its last three without scoring; the division's leakiest defence, 21 goals conceded in nine games; and a home record at Selhurst of one win in four with ten goals let in.

Our record supports this price range without exaggerating it. The 1X2 market stands at +1.5% across 213 picks, and the 1.60–1.80 band at +2.9%. Neither figure would justify a bet by itself; the fixture does.

The danger is Liverpool's shortage of goals. They have not scored more than twice in any of their nine league games, and they were behind at half-time in two of their four away games, at Newcastle and Brentford, before recovering. A Palace side that won this fixture 2-1 thirteen months ago needs only one of those slow starts to go unanswered.