Man United vs Liverpool

Three of the five most recent meetings between these clubs saw both teams score, and the two that did not were a goalless draw and a one-sided 0-3. Manchester United won the most recent, 1-2 at Anfield on 19 October 2025, having led 0-1 at the break. Before that came a 2-2 draw at Anfield on 5 January 2025, level at 0-0 at half-time and settled after it. On 1 September 2024 Liverpool won 0-3 at Old Trafford, two of the goals arriving in the first half. The pairing on 7 April 2024 finished 2-2, Liverpool leading 0-1 at the interval, and the oldest of the five, 17 December 2023 at Anfield, ended 0-0.

So: two 2-2 draws, a 1-2, a 0-3 and a goalless afternoon. Fourteen goals across five games, with both teams finding the net in three of them. The record is not a blanket endorsement of a goals bet — the 0-0 and the 0-3 are exactly the two shapes that beat it — but it does show a fixture that has more often than not been open at both ends, and one in which the second half has repeatedly changed the picture.

Manchester United arrive third on 61 points from 34 games: 17 wins, ten draws, seven defeats, 60 scored and 46 conceded for a difference of plus 14. Old Trafford has carried them, with 11 wins, three draws and three defeats from 17, 33 goals scored and 20 conceded there. Their last eight home matches produced six wins, and both teams scored in six of those eight — a 1-1 with Wolves on 30 December, 3-2 against Fulham on 1 February, 2-1 against Crystal Palace on 1 March, 3-1 against Aston Villa on 15 March, a 1-2 loss to Leeds on 13 April and a 2-1 win over Brentford on 27 April. Across the whole home campaign, both sides have scored in 11 of 17.

The wider number is more striking still. United have kept six clean sheets in 34 league games and have failed to score in only three. Both teams have found the net in 25 of their 34 matches this season, the highest such rate of the two sides here.

Liverpool are fourth on 58 points from 34, level with Aston Villa and separated by goal difference, with 17 wins, seven draws and ten defeats, 57 scored and 44 conceded. Their away record is the flat part of the season: seven wins, three draws and seven defeats from 17, 25 scored and 26 conceded. Both teams have scored in 11 of those 17 away games.

Their recent away trips run 2-2 at Fulham on 4 January, 0-0 at Arsenal on 8 January, a 3-2 defeat at Bournemouth on 24 January, 0-1 wins at Sunderland on 11 February and at Nottingham Forest on 22 February, a 2-1 defeat at Wolves on 3 March, another 2-1 defeat at Brighton on 21 March and a 1-2 win at Everton on 19 April. Five of those eight had goals at both ends. Liverpool are also the better defensive record of the pair, with ten clean sheets in 34.

The first is the venue-specific rate that the selection depends on. United have seen both teams score in 11 of 17 at home; Liverpool in 11 of 17 on the road. Both sit at 65 per cent, and 1.70 requires roughly 59 per cent to break even.

The second is that neither side has been shutting games down. United have six clean sheets in 34 and Liverpool have conceded 26 in 17 away matches — more than they have scored on their travels. The visitors' defence has been considerably better at home than away.

The third is the table. United are third on 61, Liverpool fourth on 58 alongside Villa, with Arsenal on 76 and Manchester City on 70 from a game fewer above them. Four rounds remain and the places behind the top two are unresolved. A draw is worth little to either side, which argues against a cautious afternoon.

The fourth is the counterweight, and it is real. Liverpool's ten clean sheets are nearly double United's six, and this exact fixture produced a 0-0 in December 2023 and a 0-3 in September 2024. United have been blanked three times this season. A one-sided scoreline is not a freak result in this pairing.

Our published position is BTTS Yes at 1.70 with medium confidence, and the confidence rating is doing honest work here. Both teams to score is the weakest market in our own record, and we take it only where the venue splits genuinely support it. They do: 11 of 17 at both ends for United at home, 11 of 17 for Liverpool away, against a break-even requirement near 59 per cent. Add two sides four points apart in a race with four games left, a United home attack that has scored 33 in 17, and a Liverpool away defence that has shipped 26 in 17, and the case stands on numbers rather than on a claim about how these teams like to play.

The margin is thin, though, and that is why this is not a high-confidence call. Nothing in the record says a 1.70 line is generous.

The thing that beats it is Liverpool's away discipline in the tighter matches. They won 0-1 at Sunderland and 0-1 at Nottingham Forest inside a fortnight in February, and they held Arsenal to 0-0 in January. If they arrive to control the game rather than trade, one clean sheet ends the bet.