Nottingham vs Burnley

Three meetings sit on the record, and not one of them was comfortable. The most recent came this season, on 20 September 2025, when the sides drew 1-1 at Burnley — level at the interval as well, at 1-1. Before that, on 19 May 2024, Forest won 2-1 at Burnley, having led 2-0 by half time. The only fixture in the set played at Forest's ground, on 18 September 2023, finished 1-1, with Burnley leading at the break.

Read plainly, that is one Forest win, two draws, and a total of seven goals across three matches. Forest have not lost to this opponent in the games we can see, which is the good news for anyone backing them. The less convenient news is that they have not beaten them at home either: the single home meeting on record was a draw in which they trailed for the opening 45 minutes. Two of the three finished under 2.5 goals. Whatever else this fixture has been between these two, it has not been a routine home win for Forest.

Forest were seventh last season on 65 points, with 19 wins and a goal difference of plus 12. That context matters mainly as a measure of how far the season has slipped. They are 16th on 33 points from 32, a goal difference of minus 12, and only two points clear of 18th with six matches remaining.

Their home record is the problem. Three wins, six draws, seven defeats in 16, with 14 scored and 20 conceded. Those 14 goals are the fewest scored at home by any club in the division this season, and Forest have failed to score at home in nine of their 16 attempts. The last home win came on 14 December, 3-0 against Tottenham. In the eight home matches since — including 0-0 draws with Arsenal, Wolverhampton and Fulham, and a 1-1 with Aston Villa on 12 April — they have taken five points and scored three times. Curiously, they have been better on the road: five away wins against three at home, including a 3-0 at Tottenham on 22 March.

Burnley are 19th on 20 points, a goal difference of minus 30, and 12 points behind 17th with six left. Away from home they have won two, drawn three and lost 11, scoring 18 and conceding 38. That 38 is the highest away goals-against total in the league. They have not kept a single clean sheet on their travels all season, in 16 attempts. Their recent away form: a 1-1 draw at Chelsea on 21 February, then defeats by 2-0 at Everton on 3 March and 3-1 at Fulham on 21 March. Their two away wins, though, came at Wolverhampton in October and at Crystal Palace in February, both 3-2 — so the capacity to score on the road exists even when the defence does not hold.

The first factor is the one carrying the pick: Burnley cannot defend away from home. Sixteen away matches, no clean sheets, 38 conceded, an average well above two per game. Every single opponent they have visited this season has scored against them. Forest do not need to be good in front of goal to score here; they need only to be normal.

The second cuts the other way and cuts hard. Forest at home have been the worst attacking side in the division, 14 goals in 16 matches, blank in nine of them. A team that fails to score in more than half its home fixtures is a difficult team to back at odds-on, however weak the visitors.

Third, what the fixture means. Forest sit two points above 18th with six to play; this is close to a must-win by the arithmetic, and there is no comfort in the calendar for a side that has drawn five of its last eight at home. Burnley's position, 12 points from 17th with 18 available, is close to beyond repair, and how a squad in that situation responds is genuinely unpredictable — they beat Crystal Palace 3-2 away as recently as February.

Fourth, the goals profile pulls in opposite directions. Eleven of Burnley's 16 away matches produced three goals or more; only seven of Forest's 16 home matches did. The visitors bring chaos; the hosts smother it. Something has to give.

This is a pick made on the opponent rather than on the team we are backing, and it should be read that way. Burnley have conceded more goals away from home than anyone in the Premier League this season and have never once shut out a host. Forest, for all their attacking problems, are 13 points better off, unbeaten in three meetings with this opponent, and playing a match their league position makes close to essential.

We are backing Nottingham Forest to win at 1.80, rated medium confidence, and medium is the right word. Odds-on would not have been justifiable. Three home wins in 16 and 14 home goals all season is not the profile of a side you back with conviction, and the price reflects an honest assessment rather than an enthusiastic one.

The thing that beats it is the pattern of the last four months at this ground. Forest have drawn five of their last eight home matches, three of them goalless. Burnley have taken points at Chelsea, Liverpool and Bournemouth this season by defending deep and stealing something. A 0-0 or 1-1 is the outcome the recent evidence points at more clearly than a home win does.