Nottingham 4-1 Burnley: Premier League Match Report

Nottingham 4-1 Burnley was 0-1 down at the interval and 4-0 in the second half. That is the whole match: a home side that trailed for 45 minutes against the second-bottom club and then scored four times without reply.

Nottingham were 16th on 33 points from 32 matches with a goal difference of -12, two points above the relegation places and playing the fixture their season needed most. They had not won in four — 1-2 at Brighton, 2-2 at Manchester City, 0-0 with Fulham, 1-1 with Aston Villa — after a 3-0 at Tottenham. Draws against City and Villa are creditable results for a side in their position and worth nothing at all in a relegation fight.

Burnley were 19th on 20 with -30, thirteen points behind their hosts and in freefall: 3-4 at home to Brentford, 0-2 at Everton, 0-0 with Bournemouth, 1-3 at Fulham, 0-2 at home to Brighton. One point from five. The reverse fixture at Turf Moor in September had finished 1-1, which was the last time these clubs had produced anything resembling a close match.

Nottingham moved to 36 points and a goal difference improved to -9, opening a five-point gap on the relegation places and, just as usefully, repairing a goal difference that had been the weakest among the sides above the drop. Four goals from a team that had scored six across their previous five matches is the sort of afternoon that resets a run-in.

Burnley stayed on 20 with the difference falling to -33. Twelve points from safety with five rounds left, no wins in five and a defence that had conceded eleven across them. Their relegation was not confirmed by this result, but the difference between confirmed and inevitable had stopped being interesting. Taking the lead at a direct rival's ground and losing 4-1 is a fair summary of their season.

Our pre-match call was Nottingham Win at 1.80. It came in, and for 45 minutes it looked like the sort of loss that costs more than money. The case was the gap in the table and Burnley's five-match collapse, weighed against Nottingham's own four matches without a win — which is why the price was 1.80 rather than shorter. The half-time deficit tested it and the second half settled it. When a side in freefall goes ahead early, the question is whether they can hold it, and Burnley had taken one point from their previous five. Verdict: won