RC Celta de Vigo vs Levante UD

Last season's two meetings were both won by the away side. Celta won 2-1 at Levante on 2 November 2025, having led 1-0 at half-time, and Levante returned the result at Balaídos on 12 May 2026, winning 3-2 after the sides had gone in level at 1-1.

Both games produced at least three goals and both teams scored in each. That is worth holding against what follows, because it is not how Celta's matches have gone this season. The May result is also a reminder that Levante can win at Balaídos, something they have not managed anywhere away from home in six attempts this term.

Celta finished sixth last season with 54 points, 14-12-12, scoring 53 and conceding 48. Levante finished 16th on 42 points, 11-9-18, with 47 scored and 61 conceded, level on points with Osasuna and Mallorca; Mallorca went down, and Levante kept their place.

This season Celta are 12th on 12 points from 11 games: 2-6-3, ten scored and ten conceded. Six draws is the joint-most in the division, level with Deportivo, and four of them were 0-0, at Valencia, Real Sociedad and Elche and at home to Betis. They have failed to score in six of their eleven games, and half of their ten goals came in a single 5-0 win over Racing Santander. Nine of the ten were scored at Balaídos; away they are 0-4-1 with one goal in five games. Their last five read W D W D L, eight points, ending with a 3-0 defeat at Rayo Vallecano on 31 October.

Levante are 18th on 10 points from 11 (2-4-5, 16 scored, 21 conceded), in the bottom three on goal difference behind Elche. Their season splits cleanly in two. At home they have scored 13 in five, beating Betis 5-2 and Athletic Club 3-1 and drawing 3-3 with Sevilla after trailing at half-time. Away they have three goals in six games and no win: 0-0 draws at Osasuna and Málaga, 1-1 at Deportivo, and defeats at Espanyol (3-0), Villarreal (3-1) and Real Sociedad (2-1). The last five have brought five points, the most recent a 2-0 home defeat by Atlético on 31 October.

Start with Levante's away attack: three goals in six away matches, scored in only three of them, while 13 of their 16 league goals have come at home. Their away defence has been ordinary rather than poor, nine conceded in six games, so the problem sits at the other end of the pitch. A side that scores this little on the road usually needs the home team to give something away.

Celta's home record is respectable without being dominant: 2-2-2, nine scored and six conceded. The defeats were 2-1 to Osasuna and 2-0 to Athletic Club; the draws were 1-1 with Málaga and 0-0 with Betis; the wins were 5-0 over Racing and 2-1 over Alavés. Celta have led at half-time three times this season, all of them at home, and won only one of those games, the 5-0 over Racing. The leads against Osasuna and Málaga turned into a defeat and a draw, which is one more reason not to ask Celta for a straight win.

The draw runs through both records. Celta have drawn more than half of their games, a higher share than any other club in the division, and Levante have drawn half of their away games, two of them 0-0.

On goals, the evidence splits. Seven of Celta's eleven games have gone under 2.5 goals, while Levante's away games have split three and three. The head-to-head, by contrast, produced eight goals in two games. That mix is why we stay away from the totals here.

In the table, Celta are one of six clubs on 12 points, spread from 11th to 16th on goal difference, so a single result can move them several places either way. Levante are level on points with Elche, the club just above the bottom three, which gives them every reason to come for more than a point.

Our pick is Double Chance 1X (RC Celta de Vigo or Draw) at 1.33, with medium confidence.

Levante UD have not won away from home this season, and the draw, the result RC Celta de Vigo produce more often than any other club in the division, sits on our side of this bet rather than against it. The selection would have landed in all six of Levante's away games and in four of Celta's six at home.

We would rather own the draw than fight it. Celta's attack does not justify a straight home win: outside the 5-0 against Racing they have scored five goals in ten games, and four of their draws finished goalless. Our double-chance record is −3.4% over 77 picks, and the price falls in our up-to-1.45 band at +0.7%, so the record is neutral at best; the pick stands on Levante's away numbers.

What beats it is May repeated. Levante won 3-2 at Balaídos then, their home scoring shows they can produce goals in bunches when a game opens up, and Celta have already lost two of their six home matches.