SC Freiburg vs SV Werder Bremen

Freiburg have won the last four meetings with Werder Bremen and have not conceded a goal in any of them. Ten scored, none against, home and away, across a span of eighteen months.

The run reads 1-0 at the Europa-Park Stadion on 7 February 2026, 3-0 in Bremen on 20 September 2025, 5-0 at home on 21 February 2025, and 1-0 in Bremen on 5 October 2024. The 5-0 is the outlier in scale, but the pattern underneath it is consistent: Werder have not scored against this opponent since 27 January 2024, when they won 3-1 at home. That remains Freiburg's only defeat in the last ten meetings.

Restrict the sample to Freiburg's ground and it gets starker. The five most recent matches at the Europa-Park Stadion produced 1-0, 5-0, 1-0, 2-0 and a 1-1 draw in October 2020. Four wins, one draw, ten goals scored and one conceded. Werder have taken a single point from their last five visits and scored a single goal.

Across all ten recorded meetings the goal count is twenty-two, an average of 2.2 a match, and Freiburg's record is seven wins, two draws and one defeat. Fixtures develop habits, and this one has developed a very specific one: Freiburg control it, and they control it most completely at home.

Freiburg finished 2025/26 seventh on 47 points, from thirteen wins, eight draws and thirteen defeats, with 51 goals scored and 57 conceded for a goal difference of minus six. A seventh-placed side with a negative goal difference is unusual, and the split explains it entirely.

At home Freiburg were 9-5-3 across seventeen matches, taking 32 points with 33 scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they were 4-3-10 for fifteen points, scoring eighteen and conceding thirty-five. Thirty-two of their 47 points came at the Europa-Park Stadion. This is one of the most venue-dependent teams in the division, and today they are at the venue.

Werder finished fifteenth on 32 points, from eight wins, eight draws and eighteen defeats, scoring 37 and conceding 60 for a goal difference of minus 23. Thirty-seven goals was the lowest total of any club that avoided relegation. On the road they went 3-4-10 for thirteen points with eighteen scored and twenty-nine conceded — three away wins in a full campaign. Their closing five results were L-L-L-D-W.

Neither club has played competitively since May, so there is no current form to layer on top of any of this.

The fixture record is as one-sided as anything on the opening weekend. Four consecutive Freiburg wins without conceding, and a home sequence of four wins and a draw in which Werder have managed one goal in five visits. That is not a statistical accident spread across a decade; it is the last four meetings.

Freiburg's home form says the same thing. Nine wins from seventeen at the Europa-Park Stadion, 32 points from a possible 51, and a home ledger of 33 goals for and 22 against. Everything good about Freiburg's season happened at this ground, and everything bad happened away from it.

Werder's away record is the mirror image. Three wins in seventeen road matches and thirteen points is the sort of return that keeps a club in a relegation fight all season, and 29 conceded away means they were rarely competitive once they fell behind. Eighteen away goals in a campaign is barely one a match.

Then there is what each club carries into the opener. Freiburg spent last season proving they are a top-half side only at home; Werder spent it finishing fifteenth. Neither has anything in its record to suggest the away side arrives with an edge in any measurable category.

One honest caveat remains. This is matchday one, which means the home advantage that carried Freiburg's season has had a three-month interruption, and 1.62 assumes a lot about continuity from May to August. Werder also finished the season with a win, for whatever a single result is worth after a summer. A 1-1 here would surprise nobody who ignores the fixture history.

Four separate measurements agree here. SC Freiburg went 9-5-3 at home last season and collected 32 of their 47 points there. SV Werder Bremen went 3-4-10 away, taking thirteen points and scoring eighteen goals in seventeen matches. Freiburg have won the last four meetings between the clubs without conceding. And Werder have taken one point and scored one goal in their last five visits to this ground.

That is the definition of a high-confidence position: the venue split, the opponent's venue split and the fixture history all point the same way, with no serious number pulling against them. Freiburg's negative overall goal difference looks like a contradiction until you notice it was built entirely on the road, in matches this is not.

At 1.62 the market wants around a 62 per cent chance. Freiburg won 53 per cent of their home matches last season, but against opposition that included the champions and the top four; against a side that won three away matches all year, the applicable rate is higher, and the fixture record says considerably higher.

Our pick is an SC Freiburg Win at 1.62, rated high confidence. A visiting side that scored eighteen goals in seventeen away matches has very little chance of retrieving a deficit, and the last four meetings have all ended with Freiburg ahead and Bremen unable to answer. Nil-nil at the interval is the only route to an upset that Werder's numbers support.