Villarreal CF vs Getafe CF

Getafe have not won at the Cerámica in the last two seasons. Villarreal drew 1-1 at home on 20 October 2024, after leading at half-time, and won 2-0 on 6 December 2025. The two games at Getafe were both settled by the odd goal: Villarreal won 2-1 on 30 March 2025, ahead at the break, and Getafe won by the same score on 14 February 2026, having led 1-0 at half-time.

Villarreal lead the four meetings 2-1-1, six goals to four, and none of the games had more than three goals in it. That fits Getafe's last-season profile, 70 goals in 38 league games at both ends combined, far better than it fits Villarreal's 118, and it is worth keeping in mind before reading too much into either attack.

Villarreal finished third last season with 72 points, 22-6-10, 72 scored and 46 conceded. Getafe were seventh on 51 points, 15-6-17, with 32 scored and 38 conceded: the second-lowest scoring total in the division, above only bottom-placed Real Oviedo, and the third-fewest goals conceded.

This season Villarreal are 11th on 12 points from 11 games (3-3-5, 15 scored, 15 conceded), a long way off last season's pace. Away they have been steady, 2-2-2 with wins at Málaga (3-1) and Valencia (2-1), draws at Racing Santander and Atlético (both 2-2) and defeats at Alavés and Real Madrid (both 1-0). At home they have one win in five: 3-1 over Levante, a 0-0 with Elche, and defeats by Deportivo (3-2), Betis (2-1) and, on 30 October, Espanyol (1-0). They have kept one clean sheet all season, in that Elche draw. The last five read W L D W L, seven points.

Getafe are 15th on 12 points from 11 (3-3-5, eight scored, 16 conceded), with a home and away split as stark as any in the division. At home they are unbeaten, 3-3-0 with eight scored and four conceded, including a 3-1 over Sevilla on 1 November after trailing at half-time. The other five home games all finished 1-0 or 1-1, which says a good deal about the kind of match Getafe play. Away they have lost all five: 3-0 at Alavés, 1-0 at Osasuna, 1-0 at Betis, 3-0 at Barcelona and 4-0 at Athletic Club. They did not score in any of them. Every one of their eight league goals has come at the Coliseum.

Everything starts with Getafe's away attack. Five away games, no goals, 12 conceded. They have not taken a point away from home this season.

Villarreal's home form pulls the other way, and it is poor: one win in five, three defeats, seven goals conceded. They have conceded in four of their five home games and failed to score in two of them. Their away record, 2-2-2 with nine scored, has been the better half of their season, which is the reverse of what a side that finished third would expect.

Last season set the two clubs far apart. Villarreal finished 21 points clear of Getafe; eleven games into this season they are level on 12. Some of that is Villarreal's home slump and some is Getafe's unbeaten home record, and neither of those is in play when Getafe travel.

A draw here would most likely be goalless. If Getafe's away pattern holds, the result is either a Villarreal win or a 0-0, and Villarreal drew 0-0 at home with Elche as recently as 17 October.

The goal lines are no help. Seven of Villarreal's eleven games have gone over 2.5, against four of Getafe's, and three of Getafe's five away defeats went over only because they conceded three or four themselves. With the evidence pulling both ways, we stay off the totals.

The table is tight. Villarreal head a group of six clubs on 12 points, from 11th to 16th, and Getafe are fifth of the six on goal difference, above only Osasuna. Elche, 17th, are two points further back.

Our pick is Villarreal CF Draw No Bet at 1.40, with medium confidence.

Getafe CF have not scored away from home this season: five trips, five defeats, no goals. That is the fact the pick is built on. If it holds, Villarreal CF either win or the game finishes 0-0, and draw no bet returns the stake on the second. The head-to-head points the same way, with Getafe held and then beaten on their last two visits to the Cerámica.

The straight home win was the alternative, and Villarreal's home form is the reason we did not take it: one win in five, three home defeats already and one clean sheet all season. A side that has lost at home to Deportivo, Betis and Espanyol does not earn an unprotected price. Our draw-no-bet sample is 13 picks at −3.5%, which tells us little either way, and the price falls in our up-to-1.45 band at +0.7%.

We lose only if Getafe score on the road for the first time this season and Villarreal, who failed to score in two of their five home games, cannot match it. Getafe scored three against Sevilla on 1 November, so the goals are in them somewhere.