Wolverhampton vs Tottenham

Molineux has been an awkward destination for Tottenham for some time, and the record between these clubs is the first thing that argues against our own selection. The sides have met five times since November 2023 and Tottenham have won none of them. Wolves took a 2-1 win at home on 11 November 2023, trailing at half-time before turning the game around. They repeated the scoreline in north London on 17 February 2024, this time leading 1-0 at the interval. On 29 December 2024 the pair drew 2-2 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the hosts 2-1 up at the break and unable to hold it. Then came the heaviest of the sequence: 4-2 to Wolves at Molineux on 13 April 2025, two goals clear by half-time.

The meeting already played this season followed the same pattern of Tottenham failing to break the run. On 27 September, at home, they drew 1-1 after a goalless first half. Across those five fixtures Wolves have scored eleven and Tottenham seven, and Wolves have taken three wins and two draws from a series in which they have usually been the lower-placed side. Anyone backing the away team here is betting against a pattern that has held for two and a half years.

Both clubs come into this with reputations damaged by last season. Wolves finished 16th in 2024/25 on 42 points, with 54 scored and 69 conceded. Tottenham finished 17th on 38 points, a season in which they scored 64 but shipped 65 — a top-half attack attached to a bottom-half defence.

This season has been worse for both, and considerably worse for the hosts. After 33 matches Wolves are bottom of the table on 17 points with a goal difference of minus 37. Their three league wins have all come at Molineux, where they have taken 12 points from 16 matches; on the road they have collected five points from 17 games, drawing five and losing twelve, and have scored seven away goals all season. Their last two outings were both heavy away defeats, 4-0 at West Ham on 10 April and 3-0 at Leeds on 18 April, and in neither did they reach half-time level.

Tottenham sit 18th on 31 points with a goal difference of minus 11 from the same 33 games. The number that matters most for this fixture is the split. Twenty of those 31 points have come away from home, where their record reads five wins, five draws and six defeats; at home they have won twice in 17 attempts. Set against that, their recent run is grim. Their last league win was at Crystal Palace on 28 December, a 1-0 away result, and the fourteen matches since have produced six draws and eight defeats. The most recent were a 1-0 loss at Sunderland on 12 April and a 2-2 home draw with Brighton on 18 April.

The first factor is the venue split, and it cuts in Tottenham's favour more than the league table alone suggests. Wolves have been marginally competitive at Molineux — the 2-0 win over Aston Villa on 27 February and the 2-1 win over Liverpool on 3 March came there, as did draws with Arsenal and Newcastle — while Tottenham have been a far better travelling side than a home one. On neutral reading of the two records, a Tottenham away performance is a stronger proposition than either league position implies.

The second is what the fixture means. Tottenham are 18th with five matches remaining and cannot treat any of them as spare. Wolves, 17 points from 33 games and 14 adrift of their visitors, have far less in front of them over the closing month. Motivation is a soft argument in most weeks; in late April, with one side inside the bottom three and the other far below it, it is one of the few edges available.

The third is the goals. Wolves have conceded 61 in 33 games and have not kept many clean sheets in the run-up, having shipped four at West Ham and three at Leeds. Tottenham's problem this season has been converting territory into results rather than an inability to score — 64 goals last season and a scoring return this season that has kept their goal difference far better than the bottom of the table.

Against all of that sits the fourth factor, and it is not small. Tottenham have not won a league match since 28 December. A side in that condition does not automatically fix itself against the team below it, and no reading of the league table dissolves a run that long.

The case is straightforward but not comfortable. Tottenham are the better team on paper, they are much better away than at home, and they have far more to play for than opponents who have won three times all season and none of them away. Wolves have taken 12 of their 17 points at Molineux, so the venue narrows the gap, but it does not close a 14-point difference.

The doubt is real and worth stating plainly: a team that has gone fourteen league games without a win is not an obvious selection at any price, and the head-to-head record over five meetings gives Tottenham nothing to lean on. This is a 1X2 call at a price that requires it to land close to three times in five, and the market has priced it as a favourite rather than a certainty.

We are backing Tottenham to win at 1.75 with medium confidence. The one thing that beats it is Molineux doing what it has done to this fixture before — Wolves have found their few good afternoons at home, and against a visiting side low on belief, a scrappy draw or a repeat of the 4-2 is exactly the shape of result this pairing keeps producing.