Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Fulham FC

Whatever the league table says, this pairing has been close and it has produced goals. Every one of the last five meetings finished with at least three, nineteen in total across the set. Fulham won 3-0 in London on 1 November 2025, having led 1-0 at the break. They also won 2-1 at Molineux on 25 February 2025 from a level half-time score. Before that Wolverhampton won 4-1 in London on 23 November 2024, won 2-1 at home on 9 March 2024, and lost 2-3 in London on 27 November 2023.

The two most recent fixtures staged at Molineux went one apiece and both finished 2-1. Three of the five were decided by a single goal. That record is the strongest thing the home side have going into this preview, and it is worth weighing against a season that has otherwise given them very little.

Fulham finished last season eleventh on 54 points with fifteen wins, nine draws and fourteen defeats, and a level goal difference from 54 scored and 54 conceded. They arrive here eleventh again, on 48 points from 36 games, goal difference minus six, 44 scored and 50 conceded.

Almost all of that has been earned at Craven Cottage: ten wins, two draws and six defeats from 18 for 32 points, 28 scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have four wins, four draws and ten defeats for 16 points, with sixteen goals scored in eighteen games and thirty conceded. Recent trips produced a goalless draw at Brentford on 18 April and a 0-3 defeat at Arsenal on 2 May, and they come in off a 0-1 home loss to Bournemouth on 9 May.

Wolverhampton were sixteenth last season on 42 points, twelve wins and six draws against twenty defeats, 54 scored and 69 conceded. This campaign has been far worse: twentieth on 18 points from 36 games, goal difference minus forty-one, 25 scored and 66 conceded. At 18 points with a maximum of six still available, they cannot reach the 36 already banked by the club in eighteenth, so the bottom three is settled for them as arithmetic with two rounds still to play.

The home record is the less bad half: three wins, four draws and eleven defeats for 13 points, 18 scored, 33 conceded. Away from Molineux they have not won all season — five draws and thirteen defeats, seven goals scored in eighteen games. Their best football came in a short burst at home in late winter, a 2-0 win over Aston Villa on 27 February and a 2-1 win over Liverpool on 3 March. Since then: 2-2 at Brentford, 0-4 at West Ham, 0-3 at Leeds, 0-1 at home to Tottenham on 25 April, 1-1 at home to Sunderland on 2 May and 0-3 at Brighton on 9 May.

The first factor is the obvious one and it runs against the pick. A side with three home wins in eighteen and a goal difference of minus forty-one has produced almost no evidence that it can hold a result, and no amount of head-to-head history changes the underlying quality gap.

The second is Fulham's away form, which is the only reason this fixture is close to a contest. Four wins in eighteen on the road, sixteen goals in those eighteen games, and a recent trip to Arsenal that ended 0-3 and a trip to Brentford that produced nothing at either end. Fulham are a very different team away from Craven Cottage.

The third is motivation, and it is genuinely two-sided. Fulham on 48 points are twelve clear of eighteenth with six available below them, so their season is settled too; a mid-table side with two dead games left is not a reliable favourite anywhere. Wolverhampton, with the drop already fixed by the arithmetic, are playing for pride and for next season's selection questions rather than for points.

The fourth is that Wolverhampton's home form has held up marginally better of late — a 1-0 loss and a 1-1 draw at Molineux against a 0-3 and a 0-4 on the road in the same stretch. The fifth is the goals line: 33 conceded at home for the hosts, 30 conceded away for the visitors, and five straight meetings with three or more.

There is no honest way to call this a strong selection. The home side are bottom of the table with a goal difference of minus forty-one and have avoided defeat in seven of eighteen at their own ground, a rate under 40 per cent against a price implying a little over 70. On the home record alone the bet is well behind.

The case for it therefore rests entirely on the visitors. Fulham have won four away games all season and scored sixteen goals doing it, they have lost their last two and scored once in their last three, and they arrive with nothing at stake. The head-to-head adds a little more: three of the last five meetings were one-goal games and both recent visits to Molineux finished 2-1. A dead rubber between a settled mid-table side and a home team with nothing to lose is exactly the kind of fixture where league position understates the home team's chances.

We are backing Double Chance 1X (Wolverhampton Wanderers FC or Draw) at 1.42 with medium confidence. Medium overstates it if judged on the table; it is defensible only as a bet on Fulham's away record and on the flatness of a fixture neither club needs. Readers should treat this as the thinnest call of the round.

The one thing that beats it: Fulham won the reverse fixture 3-0 in November and won at Molineux in February 2025. Wolverhampton have lost eleven of eighteen at home and were beaten 3-0 in each of their last two away trips. A Fulham side that turns up at anything close to its home standard should win this comfortably.