Frankfurt 1-3 RB Leipzig: Bundesliga Match Report

Frankfurt 1-3 RB Leipzig was a match Frankfurt were in until half-time and out of shortly afterwards. The interval score was 1-1; the second period finished 0-2. Four goals, three of them for the visitors, and a home side that matched a Champions League contender for 45 minutes and then did not.

Leipzig came in fourth on 56 points from 29 matches with a goal difference of +20, level on points with Stuttgart and holding the last of the qualification places by the narrowest of margins. Frankfurt were seventh on 42 with a difference of exactly zero, ten points off sixth and effectively finished as European contenders with five rounds left.

The reverse fixture had been the heaviest defeat of Frankfurt's season: 0-6 at Leipzig in December. Since then Frankfurt had been steady rather than good — a 1-0 over Heidenheim, a 1-2 at Mainz, a 2-2 with Köln, a 2-1 at Wolfsburg. Leipzig had won four of five, including 5-0 against Hoffenheim and 2-1 at Bremen, with a 0-1 at Stuttgart as the only slip. The visitors were the form side and the table said so.

Leipzig went to 59 points and a goal difference of +22, taking sole possession of fourth and putting three points between themselves and Stuttgart. In a division where Bayern had removed all doubt at the top, the entire competitive interest sat in the two or three places Leipzig were now defending, and an away win against a mid-table side was exactly the kind of routine result that decides them.

Frankfurt stayed on 42 with the difference falling to -2. They remained in the upper half and out of the European conversation, which had been true before kick-off and was now simply harder to dispute. Fourteen points had divided them at kick-off and seventeen did afterwards. Two matches against Leipzig this season had produced nine goals conceded and one scored, and that ratio is a fair summary of the difference between fourth and seventh.

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 Goals at 1.65. It landed with a goal to spare, and the case was straightforward: Leipzig had scored five in one recent match and conceded in four of five, while Frankfurt's own recent results had produced goals at both ends in three of the previous four. The 0-6 in the reverse fixture was the loudest single data point, and while a repeat was unlikely, it argued strongly that this pairing does not produce tight games. Both halves contributed. Verdict: won