Hoffenheim 2-1 Dortmund: Bundesliga Match Report

Hoffenheim 2-1 Dortmund and the sixth-placed side took three points off the second. Hoffenheim led 1-0 at the break and the second half was shared 1-1, so the goal Hoffenheim scored before the interval was the one that separated the sides at the end.

Dortmund arrived on 64 points from 29 matches with a goal difference of +31, twelve behind Bayern and holding second place with a fair amount of comfort. They had won four of five — 2-1 at Köln, 2-0 against Augsburg, 3-2 over HSV, 2-0 at Stuttgart — with a 0-1 at home to Leverkusen as the only interruption. They had also beaten Hoffenheim 2-0 in the December meeting.

Hoffenheim were sixth on 51 with +14, three points behind Stuttgart in fourth and in the middle of a rough patch: 0-5 at Leipzig, 1-2 at home to Mainz, 2-2 at Augsburg in their previous three. A side conceding at that rate hosting the division's second-best attack looked like a straightforward proposition, and it was not.

Hoffenheim moved to 54 points and a goal difference of +15, closing to within two of the fourth-placed side and turning a slump into a live claim on Champions League qualification with four rounds left. Three points against a direct competitor at that stage of the season count double in effect, because the gap closes from both ends.

Dortmund stayed on 64 with the difference falling to +30. Second place was not at immediate risk — Leipzig and Stuttgart were eight behind — but a lead over the chasing group is only as good as the fixtures that maintain it, and this was one they were expected to take something from. Thirteen points had separated the two before kick-off; ten did after it. For Dortmund the significant number was the one above them: Bayern's advantage had grown again, and the title had effectively been conceded.

Our pre-match call was Dortmund Win at 2.10. It lost. The reasoning leaned on the form line — four wins in five for the visitors against a home side who had just been beaten 5-0 at Leipzig — and on the 2-0 in the reverse fixture. What that missed is that Hoffenheim's bad run had come against Leipzig, Mainz and Augsburg in quick succession, not against a decline in quality; they were a fourth-place contender having a poor month, not a mid-table side. At 2.10 the market was already telling us the fixture was closer than the form guide read. Verdict: lost