SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin

Freiburg have not beaten Union in four league meetings, and have scored one goal in the process. The two games in Berlin both finished 0-0, on 8 November 2024 and 1 November 2025, goalless at half-time and at full-time. The two in Freiburg went to the visitors: Union won 2-1 on 30 March 2025 after the sides were level 1-1 at the break, and 1-0 on 15 March 2026, the goal coming after a goalless first half.

That is four meetings, four goals, two Union wins, two draws and no Freiburg win across two seasons and at both grounds. Whatever Union do against Freiburg, it has worked consistently, and it has worked best at Freiburg. This is the most important fact in the preview and the main reason our confidence is where it is. The caveat is that a transfer window has come and gone since March, and that this season's table has the clubs 12 places apart rather than four.

Last season Freiburg finished seventh on 47 points from 13 wins, eight draws and 13 defeats, with 51 scored and 57 conceded for −6. Union were 11th on 39 points, ten wins, nine draws and 15 defeats, 44 scored and 58 conceded for −14. Eight points separated them.

Eight games into this season, nine points and 12 places already separate them. Freiburg are fourth on 16 points from five wins, a draw and two defeats, 18 scored and ten conceded. They beat Werder Bremen 4-1 and Mönchengladbach 5-0 at home and won 1-0 at Paderborn, drew 2-2 at Frankfurt, beat Schalke 2-1, then lost 2-1 at Leverkusen and 3-1 at home to Bayern. They answered with a 2-1 win at Augsburg on 31 October, having trailed at half-time.

Union are 16th on seven points from one win, four draws and three defeats, seven scored and 19 conceded. They drew 3-3 with Frankfurt on the opening weekend, then lost 4-0 at Leverkusen, 3-1 at home to Schalke and 7-0 at Bayern. Since then they have not lost: a 1-0 win over Elversberg, a 0-0 with Dortmund, and 1-1 draws at Augsburg and at home to Köln on 1 November. Four unbeaten, two goals conceded in that run.

The home split is the first factor, and it favours Freiburg. Three wins in four home games, 12 goals scored, and the only defeat came against the champions. Freiburg have also scored in every one of their eight matches, one of two sides in the division to have done so. All four home games cleared two and a half goals, at an average of 4.25, which is the other half of the puzzle: Freiburg's home games this season have been full of goals, and these meetings have had almost none.

Second, Union's away record comes down to two results. They lost 4-0 at Leverkusen and 7-0 at Bayern, which accounts for 11 of their 12 away goals conceded. The third trip, to Augsburg, finished 1-1. Their away problem is less about the defence than it looks and more about the attack: one goal in three away games.

Third, Union's recent shape, which is exactly the head-to-head's shape. All four of their games during the unbeaten run stayed under two and a half goals. They have drawn four times this season, a total only Paderborn match, and three of those draws came in their last three games. This is a side that has found a way to make games small, and Freiburg have spent four meetings failing to make them big.

Fourth, Freiburg's second halves. They have scored ten goals after the interval and conceded three, the fewest second-half goals conceded by any club in the division. Union have conceded 11 of their 19 after the break. If this is level at half-time, the evidence of this season favours the home side in the period that decides it.

Fifth, what the fixture means. Freiburg are fourth, two points behind Leipzig and five behind Bayern and Dortmund. Union are in the play-off place, a point above Schalke and three above Mönchengladbach. Neither position is settled on matchday nine, but Freiburg have more to lose from a draw than Union do.

Our pick is SC Freiburg Win at 1.72, and the confidence is low. On this season's evidence the home side should win: fourth against 16th, a home record broken only by Bayern, an attack that has scored in every game, and a second-half record that suits a game against a side that concedes late. Union's away goal difference makes them look worse than they are, but their attack has scored once in three trips.

The confidence is low because the head-to-head disagrees with all of that, and it disagrees at this ground. 1. FC Union Berlin won both of their last two visits to Freiburg and have kept Freiburg to one goal in 360 minutes. Their current run of four games without defeat looks like those meetings.

At this price our record offers modest support. 1X2 has returned +1.5% across 213 settled picks, and the 1.60–1.80 band +2.9%. At 1.72 the bet needs to land a little under six times in ten, which this season's form clears and the head-to-head does not.

It fails if Union do to Freiburg what they did in March: a goalless first half, one goal against the run of the form, and a defence that has conceded twice in four games holding it.